Dennis Onyango: Why Raila Won Elections But Never Became President

For years, supporters of former Prime Minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga have maintained that he won several presidential elections only to be denied victory through electoral manipulation, state interference and political intrigues. Now, one of the men who spent years closest to him has offered a different perspective, arguing that Raila’s greatest challenge was not merely what happened at the ballot box but what happened beyond Kenya’s borders.

Speaking in a candid interview on Citizen TV, Raila’s longtime communications aide Dennis Onyango painted a portrait of a politician who excelled at connecting with ordinary Kenyans but struggled to appreciate the influence that foreign powers and international interests wield over Kenya’s political landscape.

Onyango, who served alongside Raila through some of the most turbulent periods of the country’s politics, said the ODM leader remained deeply committed to pursuing an independent political course even when doing so put him at odds with powerful international actors whose approval can shape political outcomes in developing democracies.

According to Onyango, Raila consistently believed that the will of Kenyan voters should be sufficient to determine who governs the country. But in his view, Kenya’s political reality is far more complicated.

He argued that presidential contenders must not only convince citizens that they are fit to lead but must also reassure influential foreign governments, investors and international institutions that they are reliable partners who can safeguard stability and economic interests.

Onyango described this as Raila’s biggest political blind spot, saying the veteran opposition leader never fully internalised the extent to which external interests intersect with domestic politics.

His remarks revive a long-running debate that has followed Raila’s political career for nearly three decades. Few politicians in Kenya have come as close to the presidency as often as Raila, who unsuccessfully contested the top seat in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.

The former aide was particularly emphatic when discussing the disputed 2007 presidential election between Raila and the late President Mwai Kibaki. Although Onyango was not yet working for Raila at the time, he said he remains convinced that the ODM leader won the vote.

That election plunged Kenya into one of the darkest chapters in its history after the declaration of Kibaki as the winner triggered widespread violence that left more than 1,000 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands. The crisis eventually led to international mediation headed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the formation of the Grand Coalition Government, with Raila becoming Prime Minister.

Yet Onyango suggested that the lessons Raila drew from that experience differed from his own. While many of Raila’s supporters focused on electoral injustice and state interference, Onyango believes the larger issue was the failure to sufficiently engage influential international stakeholders whose opinions could shape the political environment before and after elections.

To illustrate his point, he recounted an episode from 2009 when Raila travelled to the United States while serving as Prime Minister. According to Onyango, elements within Kenya’s diplomatic establishment allegedly sought to frustrate the visit by circulating stories suggesting Raila would fail to secure a meeting with then US President Barack Obama.

Onyango said he later concluded that some of the negative narratives surrounding the trip originated from Kenya’s own diplomatic channels in Washington and were intended to diminish Raila’s standing internationally.

The incident, he recalled, became one of the most difficult assignments he handled during his years working for the former Prime Minister.

His revelations offer a rare glimpse into the behind-the-scenes battles that accompanied Raila’s rise as one of Africa’s most recognisable opposition figures. They also add a fresh layer to the enduring mystery of why a politician who commanded massive support across several election cycles repeatedly fell short of capturing State House.

For decades, explanations for Raila’s defeats have ranged from electoral fraud allegations and ethnic voting patterns to state machinery and elite political deals. Onyango’s assessment introduces another factor into that conversation: the importance of international perception in a country whose economy, security partnerships and diplomatic relations remain closely linked to powerful global actors.

Whether one agrees with Onyango’s analysis or not, his comments are likely to reignite debate about the invisible forces that shape Kenyan politics and the extent to which presidential ambitions are determined not only by voters at home but also by interests beyond the country’s borders.

Coming from a man who spent years inside Raila’s inner circle, the remarks provide one of the most revealing reflections yet on the successes, frustrations and missed opportunities that defined the ODM leader’s long pursuit of the presidency.