How Raila Odinga Crushed ODM Succession Talks

Since Raila Odinga’s loss in the 2022 presidential election, speculation about his retirement has been rampant.

The debate intensified after he announced plans to vie for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship in February 2025.

Meanwhile, key figures within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) began vying for leadership positions, each eyeing the possibility of succeeding the opposition veteran.

However, Raila’s recent moves to reorganize ODM’s leadership and nominate key allies to President William Ruto’s Cabinet reveal his intentions to remain politically active, even as the succession race heats up.

The Battle for ODM Leadership and the AUC Seat

Earlier this year, loyal members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) fiercely competed to succeed him. Hassan Joho, the Mining Cabinet Secretary, gathered support from the Coast and North Eastern regions. Meanwhile, Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya secured backing from his allies in Western Kenya.

Both Joho and Oparanya, former ODM deputy leaders, felt they were the right candidates to lead after Raila’s retirement. But Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, who was leading the Azimio coalition in Parliament, was the favorite among Nyanza lawmakers.

Wandayi even gained the endorsement of Raila’s elder brother, Senator Oburu Oginga, who said Wandayi was closest to Raila’s heart. National Treasury CS John Mbadi also threw his hat in the ring, supported by Raila’s wife, Ida Odinga.

The competition among these four men reflected their ambitions to lead ODM. However, Raila seemed reluctant to pass the leadership baton.

To manage these ambitions, he endorsed both Joho and Oparanya to lead in his absence. But recently, Raila removed all four from the leadership equation by nominating them to President William Ruto’s Cabinet.

Since the law prevents Cabinet Secretaries from holding party positions, they were effectively sidelined. Days ago, Raila introduced a new leadership lineup for ODM. He hinted that despite his potential AUC position, he would remain active in politics.

Raila reassured his supporters, saying he could easily fly to Addis Ababa in just two hours and would continue advising his chosen deputies.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, and Kisii Governor Simba Arati were appointed as Raila’s deputies.

The move to appoint three deputies was seen as an effort to calm different factions within ODM and reduce any direct challenge to Raila’s authority.

If Raila is unsuccessful in his AUC bid, he can easily return to lead ODM. If he wins, he will remain in touch with party affairs.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna retained his role as ODM’s secretary general. Raila has described this position as the “heart of the party,” highlighting Sifuna’s close alliance with him.

Initially, Sifuna was considered for the deputy party leader role, but the creation of multiple deputy positions diluted its power.

In other changes, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was appointed as chairperson, signaling her potential for future leadership.

Notably missing from this reshuffle was Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, a vocal politician who is seen as a potential future leader in Nyanza.

Although Babu has tried to secure a more influential role within ODM, he is still viewed as a junior member of the party.

According to Timothy Onduru, a university history lecturer, Babu is relatively new to politics, and there are more experienced leaders who are better suited to take over.

Despite this, Babu’s frequent visits to Nyanza and his charismatic appeal make him a notable figure in the region’s politics.

Babu has already started charting his political path. He is part of a group of young MPs, known as “team ground,” who see themselves as an alternative to Raila’s alliance with President Ruto.

Last Friday, Babu led a group of lawmakers in criticizing the president’s handling of issues raised by young protesters. Quoting former South African President Nelson Mandela, he hinted at his own presidential ambitions.

For now, Babu’s immediate goal is to unseat Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja in 2027. However, Raila seems to prefer Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi for the position, creating a hurdle for Babu. Dr. Onduru suggests that Raila’s reluctance to support Babu is due to his tendency to “go overboard.”

Raila has often been criticized for not grooming successors and for sidelining those with bright political futures. Political analysts argue that Raila appears hesitant to hand over control, both within ODM and the Azimio coalition.