Kasipul By-Election: ODM Faces Fallout as Aspirants Shun Party Over Boyd Were Favoritism

KISUMU, Kenya, Sep 9 – The race to replace the late Kasipul MP Charles Ong’ondo Were is heating up, but growing disquiet within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) threatens to overshadow the November 27 by-election.

Although ODM remains the dominant force in Homa Bay politics, several aspirants are quietly distancing themselves from the party’s nomination process amid fears that the ticket has already been reserved for Boyd Were, the son of the late MP.

So far, only Boyd Were and philanthropist Kepha Ogada have formally applied for the ODM ticket.

Other notable aspirants including Okindo Majiwa, Sam Otiende, Victor Mbaka, Philip Aroko, George Otieno, Omondi Swaleh, Okeyo Ouko, Robert Ajwang Mabior, and Collins Okeyo – are yet to submit applications, fueling speculation that they could bypass ODM altogether.

ODM’s internal nomination battles have historically been fraught with controversy, and this contest is proving no different.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, the party’s national chairperson, has openly endorsed Boyd Were, sparking anger among aspirants who view the move as premature interference.

In contrast, Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga has thrown his weight behind Ogada, signaling a looming intra-party showdown.

“ODM has a tough task ahead. Everyone here in Kasipul is watching closely to see how fairly it will manage the nominations,” said Chris Ochieng, a resident of Oyugis town.

A group of Kasipul professionals led by Engineer Tom Okoko has already written to ODM leader Raila Odinga, urging him to guarantee a credible process.

“Let the people of Kasipul freely elect a candidate of their choice through a free and fair nomination,” their petition reads.

Beyond party politics, clan dynamics are expected to play a decisive role.

Boyd hails from the Kachien clan, while many other aspirants come from the numerically dominant Konyango clan, whose multiple candidates risk splitting the vote.

Political observers note that this arithmetic could hand Boyd an advantage if he secures ODM’s backing.

Yet Boyd faces another obstacle: his father’s controversial legacy.

Charles Ong’ondo Were, who died on April 30, 2025, was accused of heavy-handed leadership that divided the constituency. Some locals fear Boyd represents continuity of that style of politics rather than a fresh start.

Meanwhile, businessman Philip Aroko – once arrested in connection with the late MP’s death but later cleared – is reportedly plotting an independent bid.

His move would signal a dramatic break from ODM and inject further uncertainty into the race.

The by-election is also emerging as a proxy war between Governor Wanga and her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga.

Wanga is keen on Boyd’s candidacy to cement her control of Kasipul, a constituency that played a key role in curbing Magwanga’s influence during the late MP’s tenure.

Magwanga, however, is said to be quietly backing both Ogada and Aroko, setting the stage for a showdown that could reshape Homa Bay politics ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial race.

Analysis: Three Scenarios That Could Define Kasipul’s Future

Scenario 1: ODM Imposes Boyd Were

If the party machinery hands Boyd the ticket, he could win on ODM’s brand and clan backing.

But favoritism could trigger defections, with rivals opting for independent runs.

Such a win might leave Boyd politically weak, seen as a product of ODM’s machinery rather than broad popular will.

Scenario 2: A Split Opposition Helps Boyd

Multiple independent candidates from the Konyango clan could dilute each other’s support, enabling Boyd to win with a plurality.

Yet his legitimacy would remain fragile, and the victory could spark discontent that weakens ODM in 2027.

Scenario 3: A Strong Independent Challenge

If Aroko or Ogada consolidates anti-ODM sentiment, Kasipul could witness a historic independent win.

This would embarrass ODM nationally, empower Magwanga’s camp, and undercut Wanga’s political dominance in Homa Bay.

The Kasipul by-election is therefore more than a succession contest.

It is a litmus test for ODM’s internal democracy, a trial of clan power-brokering, and a proxy battle for control of Homa Bay politics ahead of 2027.