ANALYSIS: Two Likely Scenarios That Will Play Out For Raila On AUC Election Day

By Kipkalya Kones

One of two things will happen;

1. Raila Odinga will win the AUC Chairman’s race…

This will be a just and fair reward for a man who has committed his whole adult life to the service of the people. In a way, for many of his supporters, it will also wipe out the bitter memories of stolen elections and the humiliation that has always come with it. Celebrations will break out. And since it’s a four-year term, renewable once, Raila will then be in Addis until at least 2029, or at most 2033, covering two Kenyan electoral cycles.

This eventuality means that it will be the last time to see Raila in local politics, though nothing stops us asking him to then run for President in 2037. Amolo is still vere vere young! As AUC Chair, Raila will transition to continental statesman, and those noises you have been hearing in ODM will turn into action, as both his political orphans, his proteges as well as the Transaction Industrial Complex in the party, physically begin to outdo each other. The sharks, the hyenas and the lambs will all converge under the umbrella of EAT OR BE EATEN!

2. Raila loses the election and returns home…

First, this would mean that one or two blocs, especially SADC and ECOWAS, betrayed Raila after making endorsements. Further complications may arise from Kagame’s tiff with both Tshisekedi of DRC and the widely respected SADC kingpin, Cyril Ramaphosa. When Amina Mohamed lost this contest in 2017, intra-bloc disunity in the EAC played a major role. Some EAC states failed to vote for her. You can therefore imagine the possibility of inter-bloc dynamics currently prevailing.

The opponent from Djibouti was widely expected to step down before this contest. At some point, there were leaks of a presser just about to take place. That Yousouf didn’t step down and has opted to go to the wire is an uncomfortable prospect for Raila supporters, long traumatised by victories that have seemed guaranteed only to collapse at the last minute. Raila’s endorsements had gone past the half mark, so it is inconceivable that Yousouf would stay on, unless he also sees a clear path to victory. Not to mention that in 2017, the Kenyan government had even set up a hotel for celebrations when Amina inexplicably lost.

In terms of local political dynamics, if Raila loses, the prevailing feeling will be that he was led to slaughter by a cunning Kenyan government, led by Ruto. First, ODM members will immediately declare Raila the Sixth for 2027! I mean, if he was good enough to run the continent past 2027, he can surely run Kenya too, two elections ahead! The broad-based arrangement will immediately collapse, and those so-called ODM experts in government will suddenly discover that they are only valuable to their master as long as Baba is happy. This scenario also portends the possibility of Raila and Gachagua forces finding very rare common ground, and if the Gen Z erupt at some point, this powder keg will explode like an IED in Afghanistan.

Truth be told, many of those who wish Baba well actually prefer this second scenario. Politics in the times of mass despondency needs Raila active and angry on the local scene. Ruto’s regime hates this possibility, so let’s assume they have done enough to have Raila win on Saturday.

The Writers is a political commentator on X (CollinceBey)