United Opposition Left Weakened After By-Election Losses

The political calculations of Kenya’s United Opposition have suffered a jarring reset. What former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his allies envisioned as a triumphant opening salvo against President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid has instead exposed cracks in their coalition’s foundation.

The opposition suffered a clean sweep in all seven parliamentary by-elections held on November 27, managing to secure only a few ward seats   while Ruto’s broad-based government claimed victories across all major constituencies .

The results have triggered uncomfortable questions about the opposition’s readiness to mount a credible challenge to the incumbent.

Mbeere North became the centrepiece of this political theatre.

The constituency, carved from Mt Kenya’s heartland, transformed into a proxy war between Gachagua and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. UDA’s Leonard Muthende narrowly defeated the opposition’s Newton Kariuki by almost 500 votes  in what had been touted as an opposition stronghold. The symbolism was unmistakable. Where Gachagua had promised dominance, he delivered disappointment.

The losses extended beyond Mt Kenya. In Malava, where Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi deployed his political machinery, UDA’s David Ndakwa secured 21,564 votes against DAP-K’s Seth Panyako who received 20,210 . At the Coast, ODM maintained its dominance, winning in Magarini constituency  where the united opposition had hoped to make inroads.

Gachagua’s response oscillated between defiance and deflection. While acknowledging defeat, he attempted to reframe the narrative, describing the Magarini result as giving his party an entry point into the Coast region.

Yet his claims of State-sponsored violence and voter manipulation rang hollow against the cold arithmetic of ballot tallies. The opposition blamed hooliganism, bribery and intimidation, but analysts argue these complaints mask deeper strategic failures.

Political analyst Dismas Mokua suggested the results confirm that Gachagua’s efforts to make Ruto a one-term president have faced turbulence . The opposition’s philosophical challenge has become apparent. They have mobilized around grievance rather than governance, around the person of Gachagua rather than policy alternatives.

The fragmentation within opposition ranks adds another layer of vulnerability. Observers suggest the by-elections have given the United Opposition a platform to review Gachagua’s role as de facto leader, potentially uniting Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i against him . Leadership disputes could fracture the coalition before it gains momentum.

President Ruto wasted no time leveraging his victories. Speaking in Limuru the day after results were announced, he mocked the opposition’s reliance on slogans like “Wantam” and “Must Go” while boasting that his broad-based government swept all contested seats. His message was pointed: elections are won through planning and delivery, not noise and protests.

For Ruto, the outcome holds significant political weight as he aims to weaken or split the opposition while preparing for his 2027 re-election bid .

President William Ruto at a past event.

The partnership with ODM within his broad-based government has proven strategically valuable, allowing him to consolidate support beyond his traditional base even as his Mt Kenya grip appears contested.

The violence that marred several polling stations presents its own cautionary tale.

Clashes in Malava, Kasipul and Banisa, including torched vehicles, signal the possibility of more unrest in 2027 unless credible polls are guaranteed .

The electoral environment is becoming increasingly volatile, with both sides accusing each other of deploying goons and state resources.

For the United Opposition, the path forward demands more than recalibration. The coalition must develop substantive policy positions that resonate beyond regional grievances.

They must settle internal power struggles and present a unified command structure. Most critically, they must demonstrate they can win not just on sympathy for Gachagua’s impeachment but on the strength of an alternative national vision.

These by-elections were meant to be the opposition’s coming-out moment, proof that anti-Ruto sentiment had coalesced into electoral force.

Instead, they revealed a movement still searching for its identity, struggling to translate discontent into votes. With 2027 approaching, time is running short for a coalition built more on what it opposes than what it proposes.

The results have granted Ruto breathing room and political momentum. They have left the opposition grappling with the uncomfortable realization that outrage alone does not guarantee victory. In Kenyan politics, the cheese has indeed moved, and the opposition finds itself scrambling to catch up.