The Gachagua Trap: How Kindiki Risks Repeating His Predecessor’s Fatal Mistakes

A Dangerous Pattern Emerges

Seven months after Rigathi Gachagua’s historic impeachment as Kenya’s Deputy President, his successor Kithure Kindiki appears to be walking dangerously close to the same political precipice that claimed his predecessor.

The parallels are striking, the timing suspicious, and the implications profound for both Kenya’s political stability and the Deputy President’s own survival.

Between May 1 and May 23, 2025, Kindiki made an extraordinary 36 visits to Mt. Kenya region—the same political heartland that both elevated and ultimately destroyed Gachagua.

In contrast, he made only eight appearances outside this region during the same period.

This lopsided focus has triggered alarm bells among political observers who witnessed firsthand how regional fixation became Gachagua’s Achilles heel.

The Ghost of Impeachment Past

Gachagua’s downfall in October 2024 was swift and decisive.

The Senate voted 54-13 to remove him from office on charges including gross violation of the constitution, corruption, abuse of office, and—most tellingly—stirring ethnic hatred through divisive politics.

The impeachment motion succeeded because Gachagua had painted himself into a corner as a regional champion rather than a national leader.

The former Deputy President’s fatal flaw was his perceived transformation from a national figure into what critics labeled a “Mt. Kenya supremacist.” His rhetoric increasingly centered on protecting the interests of his home region, often at the expense of national cohesion.

This regional tunnel vision made him vulnerable when President William Ruto needed a scapegoat for mounting political pressures.

Kindiki’s Perilous Path

Now, barely six months into his tenure, Kindiki seems to be following the same playbook with alarming precision.

His intensive Mt. Kenya tour—averaging more than one visit per day to the region—mirrors Gachagua’s strategy of building a regional power base.

The Deputy President has been present at economic empowerment events, fundraisers, development launches, and community gatherings across Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Laikipia, and Nyandarua counties.

On May 21, while commissioning the upgraded Limuru Dairy factory, Kindiki declared: “The government is supporting value addition in agriculture. We are also implementing the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda.”

While seemingly innocuous, such statements delivered exclusively in Mt. Kenya venues create the dangerous perception of regional favoritism—the same accusation that ultimately destroyed Gachagua.

The Political Mathematics of Survival

What makes Kindiki’s strategy particularly puzzling is that he should have learned from Gachagua’s mistakes.

The Mt. Kenya region, while politically significant with approximately 20% of Kenya’s population, is not large enough to sustain a Deputy President who becomes perceived as regionally captured.

Gachagua discovered this harsh reality when his impeachment received support not just from Ruto’s allies, but also from opposition lawmakers who saw him as divisive.

The current political dynamics make Kindiki’s regional focus even more dangerous.

President Ruto is facing his own legitimacy challenges following the Gen Z protests that forced him to withdraw the controversial Finance Bill 2024.

In such circumstances, a Deputy President who appears to be building an independent power base becomes a liability rather than an asset.

The Familiar Warning Signs

Several red flags indicate Kindiki may be repeating Gachagua’s errors:

Regional Capture: The overwhelming focus on Mt. Kenya counties creates an impression that the Deputy President prioritizes one region over others. This perception of regional favoritism was central to Gachagua’s impeachment charges.

Timing and Intensity: Making 36 visits to one region in just 23 days suggests political ambition beyond routine government duties. The frequency mirrors Gachagua’s pre-impeachment hyperactivity in the same region.

Alliance Building: Reports indicate that former Gachagua loyalists are now gravitating toward Kindiki, potentially recreating the same regional political machinery that made the former Deputy President appear threatening to the President.

Economic Messaging: By positioning himself as the champion of Mt. Kenya’s economic interests, Kindiki risks being seen as prioritizing regional concerns over national unity—exactly the trap that ensnared Gachagua.

The Historical Context

Kenya’s history is littered with Deputy Presidents who fell out with their principals, often due to perceived regional overreach.

From Josephat Karanja to Michael Kijana Wamalwa, and most recently Gachagua, the pattern is consistent: Deputy Presidents who build independent regional power bases inevitably clash with Presidents who view such activities as threats to their authority.

Kindiki’s legal background should make him acutely aware of this pattern.

As a constitutional law professor, he understands better than most that the Deputy President’s role is inherently subordinate and precarious.

The constitution provides the President with significant latitude to manage his deputy, and impeachment remains a viable option when political relationships sour.

The Strategic Miscalculation

What makes Kindiki’s approach particularly puzzling is its strategic shortsightedness. By focusing intensively on Mt. Kenya, he risks several negative outcomes:

Presidential Suspicion: President Ruto may begin to view his deputy as building an alternative power center, leading to the same trust deficit that destroyed Gachagua.

National Alienation: Other regions may perceive Kindiki as captured by Mt. Kenya interests, limiting his national appeal and making him politically expendable.

Opposition Ammunition: Critics can easily point to the regional imbalance in his activities as evidence of favoritism, weakening the administration’s national cohesion narrative.

The Path Forward

If Kindiki hopes to avoid Gachagua’s fate, he must urgently recalibrate his approach. This requires:

Geographic Balance: Ensuring visits to all regions reflect Kenya’s national character rather than regional preferences.

Message Discipline: Avoiding rhetoric that can be interpreted as regional favoritism or ethnic mobilization.

Subordinate Positioning: Maintaining clear deference to President Ruto while building his own profile within acceptable bounds.

National Focus: Emphasizing policies and projects that benefit all Kenyans rather than appearing to champion regional interests.

The Broader Implications

Kindiki’s current trajectory has implications beyond his personal political survival.

Kenya’s stability depends partly on the perception that national leaders serve all citizens equally.

A Deputy President who appears regionally captured undermines this principle and potentially fuels the same ethnic tensions that have periodically destabilized the country.

Moreover, if Kindiki follows Gachagua’s path to impeachment, it would establish a dangerous precedent where Deputy Presidents from Mt. Kenya are systematically removed for regional overreach.

This could further inflame political tensions and make the position almost untenable for leaders from the region.

Learning from History

The parallels between Kindiki’s current activities and Gachagua’s pre-impeachment behavior are too stark to ignore.

Both men focused intensively on Mt. Kenya, both built regional alliances, and both risked being perceived as putting regional interests above national unity.

The key difference is that Kindiki still has time to change course.

The Deputy President faces a critical choice: continue down the path that led to his predecessor’s spectacular downfall, or learn from history and chart a different course. His political survival—and Kenya’s stability—may well depend on making the right choice before it’s too late.

The ghost of Gachagua’s impeachment should serve as a sobering reminder that in Kenyan politics, regional champions often become national casualties.

Kindiki would be wise to heed this warning before he, too, falls into the trap that has claimed so many of his predecessors.