Sh2 Billion Victims Pay Threatens to Split UDA-ODM Pact

The political truce between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing its most serious test yet after a bitter dispute emerged over the government’s Sh2 billion compensation programme for victims of police brutality and political protests.

What was intended to be a landmark reconciliation initiative has instead exposed growing mistrust within the broad-based government arrangement, with senior ODM figures accusing State House of sidelining the party from a key promise contained in the March 2025 cooperation pact between the two former rivals.

The fallout burst into the open this week during a State House ceremony where President Ruto received a framework prepared by the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights for compensating victims of human rights abuses and families of those killed during anti-government demonstrations. The compensation programme is expected to benefit more than 1,800 victims and has been allocated Sh2 billion by the government.  

However, instead of showcasing unity between the coalition partners, the event highlighted simmering tensions within ODM.

ODM leader Oburu Oginga used the occasion to publicly express his dissatisfaction after arriving when the ceremony was already underway, claiming he had not been properly invited. In remarks that caught the attention of political observers, Oginga suggested that the treatment reflected the absence of his brother, Raila Odinga, who has been the chief architect of the UDA-ODM rapprochement.  

The compensation agenda occupies a special place within ODM’s political calculations. It was one of the flagship commitments contained in the ten-point agreement signed by President Ruto and Raila Odinga in March 2025, a deal that laid the foundation for the broad-based government and eased months of political hostility.  

For ODM, compensation is more than a government programme. It is a politically sensitive issue tied to the party’s traditional support base, many of whom suffered injuries, arrests, deaths and economic losses during successive waves of anti-government protests. Party leaders have repeatedly pointed to the compensation pledge as evidence that engagement with President Ruto was delivering tangible benefits for their supporters.  

Behind the scenes, the State House event reportedly triggered a stormy discussion among ODM’s top leadership. Senior party officials questioned why key figures, including governors and senior party office holders, were absent from a ceremony involving one of the most politically significant items in the UDA-ODM agreement.  

The concerns go beyond protocol.

Some ODM insiders now believe there is a deliberate attempt by UDA strategists to claim sole ownership of a programme that was negotiated jointly between the two parties. The fear within sections of ODM is that if compensation payments begin reaching beneficiaries without visible ODM involvement, President Ruto could reap the political rewards among communities that have traditionally supported Raila Odinga.  

That perception has become particularly sensitive as political conversations increasingly shift toward the 2027 General Election. ODM has invested significant political capital in persuading sceptical supporters that cooperation with Ruto’s administration would yield justice for victims of police excesses and political violence.

The compensation programme itself is extensive. Beneficiaries have been identified across six categories of violations, including deaths, enforced disappearances, torture, sexual violence, unlawful detention and destruction of property. According to government figures, the largest group consists of victims whose freedom and security were violated during demonstrations and related security operations.  

President Ruto has framed the initiative as a national healing process aimed at ending a cycle in which protests repeatedly descend into violence, loss of life and destruction of property. He argues that compensating victims is necessary to strengthen democracy and restore public confidence in state institutions.  

Yet the politics surrounding the payout may prove more complicated than the compensation exercise itself.

The public protest by Oburu Oginga has revealed underlying tensions that have largely remained hidden since the UDA-ODM pact was signed. While neither side has openly questioned the future of the alliance, the dispute has exposed competing interests over credit, influence and political ownership of flagship programmes.

With billions of shillings now set to flow to victims across the country, the compensation exercise is emerging as more than a human rights intervention. It is becoming an early test of whether the fragile UDA-ODM partnership can survive the political pressures that come with sharing power and claiming achievements.

If the disagreement deepens, the Sh2 billion compensation programme could become the issue that transforms quiet unease within the coalition into a full-blown political confrontation.