Trouble in Paradise: Is Kindiki on His Way Out of Ruto’s Govt?

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s political future in President William Ruto’s administration appears increasingly precarious as insiders reveal a shifting power dynamic within Kenya Kwanza’s inner circle.

Multiple sources close to the presidency suggest that Kindiki, who replaced the impeached Rigathi Gachagua, may soon find himself sidelined in favor of new allies from Western Kenya and Nyanza.

Warning Shots from Mudavadi

In what political observers interpret as the first public warning shot, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi made a thinly veiled statement during a function in Othaya, Nyeri County, on Sunday that has set tongues wagging across Mt. Kenya region.

“There are many people, myself included, who are interested in the Deputy President position. If you’re not careful, the mountain will lose it,” Mudavadi cautioned the Mt. Kenya electorate, adding ominously, “A bird in hand is better than ten in the bush. Hold on to what you have and take it seriously.”

Sources within Kenya Kwanza who spoke on condition of anonymity confirm that Mudavadi’s statement wasn’t a slip of the tongue but a calculated move sanctioned by State House to test public reaction to a potential change in the deputy presidency.

Dwindling Support in Mt. Kenya

President Ruto’s approval ratings in the Mt. Kenya region have plummeted dramatically, with internal polling showing his popularity stands at a dismal 15 percent—down from 19 percent before his recent tour of the region. This decline has accelerated concerns about the region’s electoral value to Kenya Kwanza in 2027.

“The President is deeply worried about Mt. Kenya’s drift,” revealed a senior UDA official. “Kindiki was supposed to stabilize the region after Gachagua’s impeachment, but he lacks the political muscle to rally the mountain behind Ruto.”

Unlike his predecessor Gachagua, who maintained a robust grassroots network, Kindiki has struggled to connect with voters beyond his immediate Tharaka-Nithi base. His technocratic approach, while effective in administration, has failed to translate into political capital.

“The President needs someone who can deliver votes, not just manage files,” said the source.

Western Kenya: The New Power Base?

Multiple sources confirm that President Ruto is actively cultivating Western Kenya and Nyanza as alternative power bases for his 2027 re-election bid. The elevation of Mudavadi to the powerful Prime Cabinet Secretary position was reportedly just the first step in a broader strategy.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga’s increasingly close relationship with the President has raised eyebrows within ODM circles. Her frequent appearances at presidential functions in Nyanza and Western Kenya are now understood to be part of a calculated strategy to penetrate Raila Odinga’s traditional strongholds.

“The President has essentially written off Mt. Kenya for 2027. He’s betting big on Western and Nyanza,” revealed a strategist within the President’s inner circle. “Kindiki doesn’t fit into this new equation.”

Upcoming Litmus Test

President William Ruto.

The upcoming Mbeere North by-election will serve as a crucial test of Kindiki’s political relevance. Should UDA lose this contest in what is considered part of Kindiki’s Eastern Kenya sphere of influence, sources indicate it could accelerate plans to sideline him.

“The President is a pragmatic politician. If Kindiki can’t deliver even his backyard, his usefulness is severely diminished,” said a Kenya Kwanza parliamentary leader who requested anonymity.

Former MPs who supported Gachagua’s impeachment are now reportedly making quiet overtures to the ousted deputy president as he prepares to launch a new political vehicle—a development that has not gone unnoticed at State House.

2032 Succession Politics

Beyond immediate political considerations, sources reveal that President Ruto is already laying the groundwork for his succession in 2032, with Western Kenya figuring prominently in these calculations.

“The President believes that to cement his legacy, he needs to break the Central Kenya-Rift Valley stranglehold on the presidency,” said a close ally of the President. “Kindiki was never part of the long-term plan—he was always a stopgap measure after Gachagua’s removal.”

Unless Kindiki can quickly reinvent himself as a political mobilizer rather than just an administrator, his days in Kenya Kwanza’s inner circle appear numbered. With Mudavadi’s ambitions now in the open and new alliances forming in Nyanza, the Deputy President finds himself increasingly isolated in a rapidly evolving political landscape.

As one senior government official put it: “In Kenyan politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies—only permanent interests. Right now, Kindiki’s interests and Ruto’s are diverging fast.”