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Politics

Chebukati Clarifies On The 48 percent Turnout But Things Still Don’t Add Up

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Moments after the tallying had started after the largely boycotted 26th election, the IEBC chairman who’s on record saying the laid structures couldn’t guarantee a credible election made a preliminary pronouncement. He announced voter turnout to be 48% which he described as the best estimate, this didn’t go well with many as it was expected for KIEMS to give exact numbers and statistics at the close of all polling stations.

IEBC has been on a confusion spree with many thrown off the cliff after every update. They’ve been a source of confusion rather than clarity for the simple reason that everything doesn’t seem to add up. An analysis by Shiundu of Africa Fact Check reveals the loopholes.

So, I have been told Chebukati has spoken about the issue of KIEMS and turnout. The IEBC chairman says 17,568 KIEMS kits identified 4,457, 458 registered voters “between 4 &5pm” on 26 October. So IEBC did the maths (4,457,458)/(9,200,411 total of voters in the 17,568 kits) *100 and got 48 %… but, wait.. 1hr, 4.5m voters using 17,568 kits? “Peak time,” he said. Boss, that is an average of 253 people identified per kit in one hour? Right?

One hour has 60 minutes, works out to four people being identified every minute, 1 person every 15 seconds! Haa! I don’t know about you, but for such efficiency, the 253 people standing in 17,568 stations would be in a beeline of sorts. If it wasn’t that efficient, it means, everyone in the queue, after the close of the station was allowed to vote before transmission. But just one quick question: Why did the snapshot pick 17,568 kits? Were they the only ones that transmitted at 5 pm?

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If he could get the hourly data of transmissions for the 17,568 kits by 5 pm Thursday, it means there’s a log of hourly data for all? No? If 35,564 sent signal on station opening, and therefore within network coverage, why pick just 17,568 for hourly data?

Now, by 10 pm on October 26, 2017, 33,140 KIEMS kits had transmitted results showing 6,553,858 had voted. Okay… The votes closed at 5 pm, so, we take it that these 33,140 kits transmitted the final tally of those who had voted on 26/10/2017. Or what else would the transmission show? They’d authenticated voters, polls had closed, they had transmitted the log: Turnout, right?. Again, we presume that there were voters on the queue and the kits waited until everyone had been identified before transmission at 10 pm. But really, how many polling stations opened? For that, we go to the IEBC and find 35,564 declared they opened.

Very well, so, we go back to Chebukati, he says, by 10 pm, 33,140 had sent logs, that means 2,424 of those that opened hadn’t sent data. Now, if they managed to send a signal that station was open, it means they were within 3G range, right? If they were within 3G range at station opening, why hadn’t they sent logs at 10 pm after station closure? Were people voting perhaps? But the law requires the counting to be done at the polling station, and by that time, we’d know how many votes were cast.

Okay, the IEBC chairman then said that by October 28, 5 pm, 36,882 kits had reported showing a turnout of 7,573,903. The presumption is that the difference between transmitting 36,882 vs 35,564 that opened, the extra 1,318 didn’t have network coverage. Or how else would you explain why they were not captured in the logs of the stations that signaled they had opened?

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Politics

Part 2: Why Nairobi Can’t Afford To Have A Scandal Ridden Agnes Kagure As Their Deputy Governor

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Ms Kagure

Deputy Governor post is one of those proposed to be scrapped in the referendum due to its irrelevance, it remains a puzzle as to why one Agnes Kagure has been campaigning for this post like it’s a matter of life and death.

Another one of those ‘business people’ with no clear businesses, Kagure has engaged top notch lobbying which I’m told is fronted by existing city cartels and grandfathers in this town determined to place their person at the helm of power to continue milking the county.

Nairobi already made a blunder by electing an incompetent governor and can’t afford to double the mess by having a deputy with a heap of scandals on her back while we’re here busy raising integrity standards.

Kagure previously, wasn’t known to the world but to the land grabbing world, she’s a known figure and a feared one. With questionable wealth, Kagure who was close to the late Prof Saitoti can’t cut above the bar.

In 2011, Ms Kagure was named in the Top 40 women under 40, an annual list of women who have risen to occupy positions of influence in Kenya before the age of 40, published by the Business Daily.

But the exact reality of how she acquired her wealth is known. Nothing on earth can be hidden. Just like someone who claimed to become a millionaire from selling eggs and chicken, then for sure he or she might have sold chicken worth the ostrich size.

But a case in the backdrop of that fancy profile is a stream of land grabbing cases spread all over Nairobi courts. Prominent one in court is the ownership of a property in Karen estimated to be worth over Sh1B.

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She is also in court over another plot in Nairobi’s Umoja Inner Core, in which the court has called for a full trial to determine how she bought the property, which is also claimed by one Joel Munene.

However, it is Ms Kariuki’s claim that she bought property in Karen from the late Roger Bryan Robson for Sh100 million that has made her the talk of town.

Court records show that Mr Robson’s parents left him and his brother, Michael, properties in the name of Plovers Haunt Ltd.

But the formalities of transferring the company shares from parents to sons was never carried out, according to Guy Spencer Elms, the lawyer appointed by Mr Robson as executor of his will.

In his 1997 will, Robson left his estate to relatives and charitable organisations in Kenya involved in the environment, wildlife, health and education.

His main asset was a 5.2-acre property on Ushirika Road, Karen, and a half-acre plot with flats on it next to the Nairobi Hospital.

The property is estimated to be worth about Sh1B

While Mr Elms, wanted to pass the Sh1B estate to the Kenya Wildlife Service and the Kenya Forestry Service, Ms Kariuki is one of the individuals who have emerged as the owners of the property, having bought it from Roger Robson.

Last year, the Director of Public Prosecutions wanted to prosecute Elms for forgery in relation to the Upper Hill and Karen land but the National Land Commission said it did not find any forgery in the documents. It’s being established that it was Kagure involved and masterminded this land fraud.

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Kagure’s pretence business struggles are as predictable as the shortcuts she presides over. Tedious, mind-numbing monotony that only the most rose-tinted of the Nairobi brigade should be able to stomach by now in an era of corruption. She is no better person to deliver in Nairobi.

A pathetic figure on the present day capped a hellish week and should seal the deal idiom that Agnes surely doesn’t deserve the nairobi deity seat because of her unexplained character. (Agnes to date can not explain the wealth in Langata, the grabbed land in Roysambu and some premises believed to be acquired by corrupt means.)

Kagure’s acolytes refuse to countenance the idea the unexplained wealth woman is yesterday’s woman typified by a life of what can be termed as silent killer cartels, yet she’s offering nothing to suggest she can recapture former glory of Nairobi City. This can be termed a static political game from an analogue manager in a digital age.

The well connected Kagure has been spotted with a former CS Lands and she has bragged to have funded the election of a jubilee governor but her KRA records, the Co-operative Bank account details she gave to the firearms bureau don’t show any sign of such wealth.

From 2004 until 2015, there is no record of Agnes Kagure ever having filed any returns with KRA. Evidence that she started filing returns appears in 2016. The returns are self-assessment. She seems to have rental houses and, from her monthly rental collection, is legally bound by law to submit 10% in tax. Between January 2015 and December 2017, Agnes had paid a total of Ksh 127,198.00 in taxes.

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On 22nd September 2016, Agnes Kagure Kariuki applied to the firearms licensing board, seeking to obtain a firearm for her protection, and listed the following businesses in her application:

1. Antonio’s grill,
2. Dynamic Mini Mart
3. Consolota Pharmacy
4. Universal Nautical Ltd.

The companies mentioned exist under a questionable and suspicious nature.
1. Antonio’s Grill – A search in the registrar of companies reveals that Antonio’s grill is not a company but a business name.
2. Dynamic Mini Mart – No records exist at either the Registrar of Companies or Kenya Revenue Authority.
3. Consolota Pharmacy – No records appear in either the Registrar of Companies or Kenya Revenue Authority.
4. Universal Nautical Ltd. – Company was registered in 2012 but hasn’t filed any returns since its registration.

Kagure has engaged high voltage PR drive to cleanse her image which is soiled. Nairobi sits st the heart of Kenya’s economy and is not a ground for scams of the city to come pitch their terror cell in the pretense of leadership. Nairobi deserves a leadership with integrity beyond reproach, Kagure is below the barrel bottom.

We continue to unmask Kagure as the series moves to Part3…. of you have any info and tips or stories on this email me now ([email protected])


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Politics

Ruto Will Never Be The President Of Kenya Says Uhuru’s Allied Tony Gachoka

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DP William Ruto

Tony Gachoka is not a name that needs introduction, the former aide to Raila Odinga and a proclaimed strategist in the political sphere with heavy alligment to the President whom he campaigned for in the last election is back shooting from the top.

As political realignments continues to take shape everyday ahead of 2022, the strategist who comes from the President’s community and known for not holding back his fire has opened a debate that has been in the oven for time.

Borrowing from his own words that he used on Raila Odinga during the 2013 elections, Gachoka has sensationally said that Ruto will never be a President, “William Ruto will never be President of Kenya says Tony Gachoka. Tune to TV stations near you soon. Ruto stop cheating our people since Uhuru hasn’t said it I will.” Gachoka acclaimed on his Twitter page.

Gachoka seems to have been irked by MP Moses Kuria who made a drunk TV appearance on Citizen TV last night blowing trumpet for the Deputy President. Tony described Kuria as a ‘an idiot, fool, ass, halfwit, nincompoop, blockhead, dunce, dolt, ignoramus, cretin, imbecile, dullard, moron, simpleton, clod.’

Gachoka is not the first figure from the President’s community to make such claims, former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo was vocal about the community not backing the DP come 2022 claims that put him at par with Ruto and attributed to his unsuccessful bid to recapture the seat that was taken over by Waititu.

There have been murmurs in the political corridors that the royal community could be reconsidering their support for Ruto who’s seen as a threat and unfriendly by the Kikuyu elites who’re determined to have a president they’re comfortable with to protect their empires.

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Many read the handshake between President Uhuru and Raila Odinga as a divorce letter with the DP who apparently was opposed to the idea and was excluded in its formulation. Things between the two government principals haven’t been the same lately even though they put happy faces in public. Keen observers have noticed the cut of PDA that the two displayed in their first term.

It remains uncertain if the Kikuyu community if not the elites will support DP Ruto according to the MOU that he had with the President. If this doesn’t happen then it will be a reincarnation of Kibaki-Raila pact that was never honored and Raila found himself in the cold. Only time can tell and the smokes signs can’t be ignored.


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Opinion

AISLES OF POWER: Referendum, the constitutional arithmetic to cling onto power.

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The leaders who catalysed the liberation of Africa from colonial power majority have up-to-date declined to vamoose power. An incumbent can willingly jeopardise a country into pandemonium just to secure his/her position and demand for much more ‘adequate’ time to rule and dictate due to biasness and ‘The big mansyndrome.

Exit of African leaders from power can be categorised into two:

  1. Normal- Constitutional means
  2. Abnormal- Unconstitutional means

Normal means have been through Voluntary resignation, Natural death and Loosing an election. Abnormal means have been through Civil wars(coup) and Assassination.

Research shows three quarter of Incumbents who left power in the 1990s-1970s was through coup, assassination or violent overthrow but apparently wheeled by Constitutional term limits.

Before 1990 when Term limit law came to effect, African leaders exit power at their pleasure, but now at a time and way dictated by the constitutional rules and set up. Incumbents being hit by Age limit are calling for Age Limit discard referendum while those hit by Term limit are calling for Term limit discard referendum. Unfortunately, all those that have called for these exercises have all won, many due to power from the depth of the pocket and power from the bullet.

Elections in Africa have lost importance in terms of credibility, fairness and freeness and by leaders overturning constitutional term service limits on their favour to overrule.

~Recently, Uganda’s long time President Yoweri Museveni assented a bill into law regarding scrapping off of Presidential term limit in his favour and which will make him lawfully seek reelection. This decision was seconded by Constitutional court of Uganda judges who ruled in Museveni’s favour in ration 4:1.

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Museveni's Referendum banners

 

Museveni was quoted saying before, “I’m only one whose language is understood in Washington where Uganda gets funds to promote rural electrification”

Uganda’s parliament in turmoil during Museveni’s Age Limit bill debate

~Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC ) is at war by herself. Democracy can’t be prevailed where the leaders themselves are antidemocratic. The ongoing crisis is attempted coup to remove President Joseph Kabila out power whose term was to end 2016 and elections to be held in November that year. He decided to manipulate the constitution and rescheduled election to 2018. From the records, 5.4 million people have lost their lives in this civil war since 1998.

~In Burundi Pierre Nkurunziza caused attempted coup  when the opposition took action upon themselves to defend the law. Tricks by him to manipulating the constitution in his favour to rerun for third term after claiming that 90% of the population supports his bid and governance.

Pierre Nkurunziza casting his ballot during Referendum

He argued that he was elected by parliament in his first time and not by the people and in line for a second directly elected term. After the successful manipulation, he was set to rule till 2034 but have promised to step down in 2020. Human Rights Watch said that more than 15 Burundians were killed and women were raped during referendum campaign and  he ran for a third term that’s in 2015 and went on to win in a bloody political conflict that left over 1,200 Burundians killed. Four hundred thousand more fled the country.

Victim

~In 2016, Paul Kagame also manipulated the constitution in claim of responding to the voice of the people, a decision which caused unrest and instability from opposition and economy respectively. It favours him to rule until 2034.

President Paul Kagame during the Referendum day

~In 2001 Zambia’s President Chiloba attempted to manipulate the constitution for the same selfish reason but was halted by Civil society who held a massive campaign against his decision.

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~Congo Brazzaville, Dennis Sassou Nguesso won referendum on constitutional amendment to scrap of Presidential term limit in 2015 and got reelected again in 2016

Power addicts manipulating the law to favour their interests forgets power lies in the hands of the people who can squeeze them to dehydration and render them casualties.

Perhaps unclear position or state at which when a president retire they will be in. These worries are possible causal reasons for clinging onto power.


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