Baringo Senate By-Election: Is Gideon Moi Mounting a Political Comeback?

By Correspondent

For 17 years, the late Senator William Cheptumo was a towering figure in Baringo North politics. Known for his calm demeanor, grassroots approach, and a deceptively laid-back style, Cheptumo cultivated both fierce loyalty and stiff opposition in equal measure. His long reign was bolstered by a close-knit circle of allies—referred to by critics as “Navigators”—who discreetly monitored the political landscape and regularly briefed him, turning him into a masterful, if understated, political tactician.

His unexpected triumph in 2007 over State House insider John Lokorio shocked many. Lokorio, a seasoned bureaucrat with ties to former President Daniel Moi, was vanquished by a relatively unknown advocate—Cheptumo—who rode the ODM wave that swept through the Kalenjin Rift Valley at the time.

Fast forward to 2022, Cheptumo once again faced a formidable opponent: Senator Gideon Moi, the last-born son of Kenya’s second President. The face-off, seen as a battle between David and Goliath, ended with Cheptumo’s victory, marking the first major dent in the Moi dynasty’s long-held grip on Baringo. It was a strategic win for President William Ruto, who had long sought to uproot the Moi stronghold in the Rift Valley.

In 2017, then-Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui attempted to unseat Senator Moi with a well-funded, helicopter-powered campaign, only to fall short. He was later appointed to the Cabinet—an office he lost in 2024 following the Gen Z-led protests that forced a political shake-up.

THE ENDORSEMENT THAT NEVER WAS

At Senator Cheptumo’s funeral in Bartabwa on March 1, President Ruto was in attendance, but it was retired Bishop Zacharia Chirchir who stole the moment. His warning to the Cheptumo family not to be coerced into fronting a relative for the seat hinted at political tensions simmering beneath the surface. Expectations of an official endorsement from UDA’s top brass were met with silence.

With the nomination of Wakili Hannah Wendot Cheptumo into the executive as the Cabinet Secretary for Gender, Culture, the Arts, and Heritage, it is clear that the family of the late Senator is now out of the equation.

Now, barely two months after the Senator’s passing, the big question looms: Who will be Baringo’s next Senator?

A COUNTY THAT MATTERS

Baringo County, the birthplace of Kenya’s second and longest-serving President, remains a symbolic epicenter of Kenyan politics. Its political muscle was evident during the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum, when it became the first county to reject the proposal—igniting a nationwide political showdown.

The upcoming by-election could serve as a “mock general election” ahead of 2027. With this in mind, many believe President Ruto—also UDA party leader—will move strategically to retain the seat and avoid a KANU resurgence.

THE RETURN OF GIDEON MOI?

Speculation is rife that KANU Chairman Gideon Moi may be eyeing a comeback. His recent appearance at the funeral of former Baringo North MP Willy Kamuren in Kabartonjo sparked excitement. The crowd welcomed him warmly, breaking into applause as his chopper landed. In his carefully worded speech, Moi dismissed reconciliation with the Kenya Kwanza regime but extended an olive branch to the people of Baringo—earning thunderous applause.

With rising discontent in the county over broken promises by the current government—including stalled road projects like Karandi-Mochongoi-Marigat and Kasoyo-Seretunin-Kampi Samaki—Moi’s candidacy could become a powerful protest vote.

However, some believe Moi may not risk a direct clash with President Ruto at this juncture, choosing instead to bide his time for a more favorable 2027 landscape.

RESURGENCE OF CHELUGUI

Enter former Cabinet Secretary Simon Chelugui, recently ejected from government following the Gen Z-led protests that brought down the entire Cabinet in July 2024.

Now, Chelugui is said to be recalibrating—and eyeing the Baringo Senate seat as his re-entry point. Quietly but determinedly, he is building a narrative: that Baringo’s people are tired of externally imposed leaders. His messaging resonates with voters wary of being used as pawns in larger power struggles.

Sources close to Chelugui suggest he’s not just running for the Senate seat—he’s trying to craft a third political force in Rift Valley politics. A middle ground between the Moi old guard and Ruto’s UDA juggernaut, aimed at placing himself squarely on the negotiation table ahead of the 2027 and even 2032 succession dynamics.

NEW PLAYERS, OLD GAMES

So far, two candidates have openly declared their interest, pending conclusion of IEBC constitution process..

One of them, Wycliffe Kipsang Tobole—a Kiswahili teacher at Sacho High School—has been on an aggressive campaign trail. A youthful orator with student leadership roots at Kenyatta University, Tobole has stirred curiosity by switching from a mini-SUV to a Land Cruiser Prado, complete with a bodyguard. Whispers suggest possible political backers.

Kericho Senator and Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot is believed to be fronting Dan Kiptoo, a UDA party official from Baringo Central based in Nairobi. Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen is also said to be keenly watching the race, and any endorsement from his camp could significantly tip the scales.

Meanwhile, Baringo MCAs are scrambling to regroup after their attempt to front County Speaker Vincent Kemboi. However, sources intimate that the Speaker, aware of the stakes, rejected. The 45-member assembly is now back to the drawing board, shopping for a viable candidate.

THE SHADOW OF THE STATE

Nominated MP Bishop Jackson Kosgei, who previously contested the Senate seat in 2013 and 2022, is another name being floated. A close ally of the President, he served as Chair of the Kenya Film Classification Board in 2017 and maintains strong ties within the UDA ranks.

Other aspirants eyeing the UDA ticket include: Isaiah Kirukmet (former NHIF Manager), Silas Tochim (Director, Tourism Fund), Emmanuel Ngetuny (former Eldama Ravine MP aspirant), David Kipruto (Lawyer), Vincent Chemitei, and Felix Chelaite (Kenyan based in Australia).

THE FORECAST

The upcoming by-election in Baringo is more than just a political contest—it is a referendum on loyalty, legacy, and leadership. Whether Gideon Moi makes a political comeback or the UDA machinery consolidates its gains, one thing is certain: Baringo’s Senate seat is now a chessboard where the stakes go beyond the county lines.