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Opinion

2017 Giving Me Chills

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In Kenya’s political calendar, 2017 is a nightmare that everybody is scared about and talking in low tones. Kenya is yet to fully recover from the 2007/08 PEV destruction that left close to 2000 lives lost in police killings and organized gangs senseless murders and hundreds of thousands displaced.

2013 the year of an election after a murderous 2008’s tension was high but was minimized with the Supreme Court. As a country which had gone through PEV and people had 1st hand experience, naturally, no one was ready to go the same destructive road once again. The election was disputed with wide discrepancies especially with the electronic tallying which was faced with man-made malfunctions. The opposition in their petition before the Supreme Court accused and detailed how the ruling government rigged the elections.

2013, was a special political year and it was easy to prevent violent eruption given two factors; ICC, this institution became the second most trusted for justice and what put a stop the PEV before the formation of the coalition government by Raila and Kibaki. ICC played a significant role in the last election in that it was the big boy watching and all warlords were scared of facing the noose. The suspected instigators of the 2008 PEV were this time front-runners for the presidential post. ICC gave people the sense of hope hence the Patience and strange calm. Justice was expected to be served.

Supreme Court was the another end most useful player in a peace of the country after the highly contested presidential race. Kenyans had faith in the system with high hopes on Willy Mutunga as the Chief Justice. It was given the space to break the turmoil; ethnic tensions went up the sky as the case was ongoing but the delaying of judgment also acted in a perfect psychological control. The anger that was at the announcement of results had subsidized by SCORK ruling. The judiciary played the cooling role.

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Moving on 2017 where the factors mentioned above are out of the picture, things get a little bit scary. Kenya is on a full ride to get away from ICC after all charges on all the six suspects were dropped. Faith in the judiciary is at an all time low given ‘unfair’ ruling in the last presidential election.

Analysis has placed the coming election to be one of the tightest in history with a close tie projections. This is what really should worry anyone. Africa incumbents rarely lose elections and if push comes to worse, never hesitate to use state machinery including police force to maintain staying power. If Kenyatta gets to the point he smells a loss then himself or his colleagues around Africa who’ve done it before will advise him to go dirty and if anything, there’s no ICC to worry about.

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The opposition will also be super charged not to let go again the opportunity of getting into power. A tightly contested election is the worst thing that can ever happen to this country. Given heavily rooted ethnicity, a small mishap, and the country goes up in flames. Nobody, not even I want a replay of this horror. An incumbent not ready to lose power will go to the most filth heights to maintain grounds, a wounded opposition would not let go off quickly especially if the race is too close to read malice, this my friend is the perfect recipe for a damaging result.

Jubilee has in recent events displayed how they’d quell violence should there be any. The government has invested in anti-riot machinery than any other regime before. The anti-IEBC riots was a taste of the medicine, absolute brutality that led to deaths of a number of CORD supporters including a minor who was shot by Police in Kisumu and recent raiding of Kakamega by the contingent of police officers in a search for stolen guns that has seen police stamp upper hand terror on residents. If the government used absolute power including shootings on peaceful demos for electoral body reforms, what would happen if people who no longer want or have faith in ICC and Kenya’s Courts do if they stood at a point of getting dethroned?

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What of the wild opposition with charged supporters who’re tired of being left in the cold and got close to ‘oil’ but being stopped from ascending to power? With the million of unemployed youths in the country ready to pick up weapons for pay by evil politicians. Ladies and gentlemen, this article, could go on and on because I’m honestly scared. Read the mood of the land, and you’ll see sense. Not even God can save Kenya, He has been. The opposition can’t afford a divided effort they need to stay together, so the contest is either a swing it nothing. The close tie is the last thing you want on the table.

Talking of opposition unity, Jubilee top priority from insiders is ensuring the opposition leaders get divided since a unified team of NASA is proving a hard nut. Jubilee could go as far as sponsoring individual CORD leaders to run separately in tune of billions this is a divide and rule tactic that has been happening since B.C.


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Kenya West is a trained investigative independent journalist and a socio-political commentator on matters Kenya and Africa. Do you have a story, Scandal you want me to write on? Send me tips to [in.kenyawest@protonmail.com]

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