The Nasa brigades are having a hard time picking their flag bearer, and all the four principal are fighting for this position. Each and every day they exhilarate and excite their supports about their chances of winning. But who is the best option? Who will be easy to sell to the coalition supporters and who can accept to sacrifice for the larger good?
This is no mean tasks, but a lot of sacrifices are needed if any of them has to achieve anything in the long run either this election or the next election. The truth is neither of them can produce anything reasonable if he goes it alone.
In the event that Kalonzo decides to go alone, he will automatically ensure the re-election of President Kenyatta and burns his bridges with Raila supports since he will be doing that for the second time. Of cause, his supports are loyal to him and will vote for him but they cannot win him the presidency alone he will have to join hand with other people and to go against Raila this year will ensure that the whole Odinga support base is moved. Even if he contests in 2022, they are likely not to support him.
In the scenario that Raila steps down and supports Kalonzo, what are the chances of the opposition uniting under him and carrying the day in the election?
First, if this happens Raila will have first to make a nationwide tour convincing his supporters that this was the best deal and it’s for the best and that no one forced him to make that decision or placed a gun on his head to accept it. After that then it’s when he will have to mount a campaign to ensure that Kalonzo wins and this will be against an already united opponent who also happens to be in the government. And with only four months to an election, I consider this a very unwise move.
And in the event that Kalonzo accept to play second fiddle to Raila for the second time he will just need to go to his eastern backyard and tell them that its second half the game is always 90 minutes. After all, they had supported him just 5 years ago it won’t be hard to sell and if well negotiated he will be sure that in the event they lose he will have the whole Odinga’s support in 2022.
As for Musalia, he will just have to settle in and find a way to play the third in line after all he just joined the opposition the other day. Though you can never underestimate how important he is.
But they can all contest and ensure that President Uhuru does not achieve 50+1 hence a runoff will be needed after which they unit behind the second person but this is an enormous gamble but nothing is impossible in politics and four months is a lot of time, much will be done and much is likely to surprise us.
But the truth is unless the opposition unite and mobilize their bases effectively this election is still for Jubilee to lose.
Writer: James Osolo
This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Kenya Insights or its Editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: [email protected]
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