Beijing’s long term strategic approach to Africa has far long been scanty but revealable under test of time. Most of projects have increasingly raised concerns far and wide among African citizenry and China’s global competitors, People’s Republic of China (PRC)have consistently denied the issues while some labeled as overblown, malicious speculations. Today, these efforts especially military related are shifting the doubts and questions from NOT IF to WHEN these tactical ambitions will be actualized in Africa. Even as China’s military modernization & growth is now undeniable, Beijing is still largely concerned with the world’s lens. It prefers championing its global role in a softer approach where peaceful development instead of military expansionism to be the overriding theme. As articulated in the China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035, Development,investment, sustainable financial compensation, globalgovernance, green energy cooperation and peace among other win-win results as key agenda. Surprisingly, military basing is never mentioned, over time the branding have moved from China-Africa Defense and Security Forum to China –Africa Peace and Security Forum, reason for Beijing, ‘Peace’ is today more desirable slogan than ‘defense’.
Beijing’s Security tact in Africa follows a three-part strategy from boosting military training & cooperation with partners, up scaling arm transfers to strengthening its private security sector. The joint military exercise tagged PEACE UNITY 2024 between Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Tanzania involved both land and sea drills with the aim of building capacities in joint counter-terrorism maneuvers, anti-piracy measures, maritime patrols and promoting joint port defense. It also featured large number of Chinese troops, heavy military machinery, large warships and destroyers. Other than a reflection of power projection capabilities in the continent forPLA to ensure peace and stability it was a clear pointer towards the Chinese covert plan of setting up a military base in Tanzania.
What are these projects and benefits?
China has built Comprehensive Training Centre for the Tanzania People’s Defense Forces (TPDF) to provide modern military trainings to counter current and future threats. Tanzania also enjoys close defense collaborations with China including naval exercises, construction projects as well as supply of military equipment. China has been involved in building NgerengereAirbase, Mapinga Training centre, Dar es Salaam Naval Base along with military academies. The aim of all these is to cement bilateral ties and boost China’s ability to respond to security challenges with Tanzania and other African states. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Tanzania received two Y-8 transport aircraft from China in 2003, four ZFB-05 armored personnel carrier in year 2006/7, 30 Type -59G tanks for 2011/13, 14 F-7MG fighters in 2009/12, ten WZ-551 APCS and six K-8 jet trainers in 2011/12. In 2015 Poly Technologies supplied two warships, TNS Mwitongo(P77) and TNS Msoga(P78) to fight maritime crimes. China also runs civil infrastructure projects in Tanzania such as rail network (TAZARA; Tanzania-Zambia Railway), gas pipeline, oil/gas exploration and modernizing ports among others.
Peace and security in Africa has received major boost; Capacity building for socio-economic development & education for social transformation. Likewise, Beijing contribures to peace missions in Africa.
Is Chinese military presence in Tanzania eminent?
Chinese military basing efforts in foreign territories especially Africa as a target have become a topic of massive international interest and scrutiny under lens that China is methodically moving steadily towards revamping its ability to project power globally. Today, China is attempting to secure military port access in Tanzania as a strategic point over indian Ocean.Additionally, Beijing has sought to secure status-of-status agreements with Tanzania for legal grounds to station Chinese troops.
Chinese Military basing and Geopolitics
Africa is still grappling with socioeconomic crises, coups, armedbanditry, and terrorism among other transnational threats resulting to instability in several states. Geopolitical rivalries between emerging and major powers positioning for influence in the continent is adding to the turmoil. Accusations and counter accusations is becoming the order of the day with rivalries increasingly suspicious of each other activities. For China China, its economic presence in the continent is well established; however, its role as security guarantor is still a mystery for several observers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database on arm transfer, Beijing is today the top arm supplier for the continent accounting for 19% between the years 2019 to 2023 displacing former leaders such as United States of America and Russia. Furthermore, Beijing has pledged $50 billion funding to Africa to train 6,000 military personnel as well as 1,000 law enforcement officers all this with a view to promote its governance model in the continent. On technological assistance, China supplies satellites, constructs fibre-optic cable connections and advanced technologies such as facial recognitions & the BeiDou navigation system. With all these increased Chinese military activities in Africa, China haveopenly challenged the Africa’s traditional partners and sharpened its new allies to greater heights. Beijing’s military engagements in Africa will affect the cooperation within UN Peace corps as well as trade flow of arms and security technologies that have been under traditional control of major powers. Other than economic prowess, the world’s power houses are positioning and investing in military abilities to safeguard its interests, while others are closing their military bases in Africa, Beijing is now tactically positioning to take over Africa as its military ally in readiness for any eventuality of war among the major powers. Also, these increased actions can be viewed as act of provocation and cold war towards its fellow super powers.
Potential harm Chinese military presence in Tanzania
China setting up a military base within Tanzania will definitely come along with devastating impact for the for the Country ,East Africa and beyond.
• Governance and sovereignty of Tanzania, the likelihood of China becoming a political liability the Tanzania government can’t be wished away. With Beijing’s massive investment in the country and continent at large it will be under pressure to always safeguard its interests to some great extent even it’s controlling the governance system. From history, some other major superpowers have been accused of political interference, overexploitation of resources among others resulting to public pressures for their expulsion.
• Beijing has been accused of ill intent and underhanded deals within their investments. Debt trapping, economic dependence and prioritizing Beijing’s interests over the local needs are accusations that are real. Increased corruption, bribery and unfair business practices are also coming out loud.
• Protect crime? Chinese deep sea fishers have been accused of crimes in the maritime ecosystem. Illegal, Unreported &Unregulated (IUU) fishing being a major threat under the nose of Chinese military and local authorities. Chinese military dominance over the Tanzania’s sea water is likely to spike up this menace due to reduced accountability and opaqueness.
• Generic environmental impacts related with the construction of complex infrastructure to house military bases. Notable threats includes; habitat degradation, soil erosion, chemical contamination.
• Socio-cultural effects ; some prisoners enlisted to serve as soldiers are among the troops to be based in the region, such characters with dark crime background will be a recipe to tire down the moral fabric of the community increasing risky behaviors such as prostitution, child pornography, disintegration of families, school drop outs among other crimes.
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