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The American Hand In Kenya’s Election

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U.S. Ambassador Robert Godec At a past event with president Uhuru and DP Ruto

 

The Election & the Cover-Up

By Helen Epstein

 

On August 8, millions of Kenyans formed long, orderly lines outside polling stations across the country to vote in presidential and local elections. Kenya is notorious for corruption, and virtually all prior elections had been marred by rigging. This time, however, the US and Kenya’s other donors had invested $24 million in an electronic vote-tallying system designed to prevent interference. When Kenya’s electoral commission announced on August 11 that President Uhuru Kenyatta had won another five-year term with over 54 percent of the vote, observer teams from the African Union, the European Union, and the highly respected US-based Carter Center, led by former Secretary of State John Kerry, commended the electoral process and said they’d seen no evidence of significant fraud. Congratulations poured in from around the world and Donald Trump praised the elections as fair and transparent.

But not everyone was happy. Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition National Super Alliance party, or NASA, declared the election a sham as soon as the results began coming in. On August 18, he submitted a petition asking Kenya’s Supreme Court to annul it and order a re-vote. The petition claims, among other things, that nearly half of all votes cast had been tampered with; that NASA’s agents, who were entitled by law to observe the voting and counting, had been thrown out of polling stations in Kenyatta strongholds; and that secret, unofficial polling stations had transmitted fake votes. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on September 2, but on August 29, the court registrar reported that some 5 million votes, enough to affect the outcome, were not verified.

Signs that something weird was going on emerged well before the election. A month earlier, Kenya’s electoral commission contracted Ghurair, a Dubai publishing firm, to print ballots. Newspaper reports linked the company to Kenyatta’s inner circle, and Kenyan courts ordered the electoral commission to use a different firm. The order was ignored, and the electoral commission issued a single-source contract to Ghurair anyway, citing time pressure. Then the accounting firm KPMG reported that more than a million dead people might still be registered as voters. NASA officials complained that Ghurair could print extra ballots to be used to create pro-Kenyatta ghost votes. Kerry dismissed these concerns, quipping after the election, “The people who voted were alive. I didn’t see any dead people walking around.”

Ten days before the election, the brutally tortured corpse of the electoral commission’s IT manager, Chris Msando, was discovered in some bushes outside Nairobi. CCTV footage shows his car roaming around the city for hours in the middle of the night before he died. Also in the car were two men and a woman, whose dead body was discovered beside Msanado’s, suggesting a “love triangle” explanation. Many Kenyans expressed skepticism. Msando managed the electronic system for transmitting results from polling stations, and he’d been complaining to the police of death threats for weeks. Kenya’s donors, including the EU’s ambassador to Kenya, praised the government for its commitment to investigating the murders, though many Kenyans suspected the police of being involved in them. But when the US and UK offered to help with the investigation, the police declined. Kerry warned the opposition not to politicize the killing.

A week before the election, a team of US and Canadian advisers who had been helping Odinga’s campaign set up a parallel system to verify the vote counting were arrested at gunpoint and deported. Then Odinga’s spokesman fled too, citing death threats. Then the NASA vote-counting office was ransacked. The Carter Center noted in its report that the raid had probably been carried out by Kenyan security personnel.

Election day brought more problems. According to Kenya’s electoral laws, representatives from all political parties are permitted to witness the voting and the counting of ballots in polling stations after polls closed. Each representative then signs a form known as 34A, certifying the count, and receives a carbon copy. The new $24 million system was supposed to enable scans of the 34A forms to be sent to the electoral commission and posted online immediately, so they could be double checked by all parties and the public. But that system broke down at polling stations all across the country, so only the numbers were sent to Nairobi, often not by the new system but by text message. NASA officials pointed out that these numbers could have been changed en route and noted various suspicious findings in the unofficial early returns, including 100 percent voter turnout at some polling stations—with all votes for Kenyatta; a consistent 11 percent spread between Odinga and Kenyatta during the vote counting—a virtual statistical impossibility; and a phenomenon is known as “unvoting,” in which the totals for some candidates actually fell as more votes came in. In his remarks on behalf of the Carter Center, Kerry admitted that there had been some “little aberrations here and there,” but none that “we thus far feel affected the overall integrity of the process.”

Raila Odinga addressing his supporters during the last tally attended by thousands in Uhuru Park.

Electoral commission officials were supposed to deliver their 34A copies to one of 290 constituency-level centers, where the totals would be recorded on forms known as 34Bs. Copies of all 34As and 34Bs were then supposed to be delivered physically to the national tally center in Nairobi, where they were to be put online—if they had not been already. But almost none were actually online on the day Kenyatta was declared the winner.

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Shortly before departing Kenya, John Kerry praised the electoral commission for having done an “extraordinary job to ensure that Kenya has a free, fair and credible poll.” He then urged the opposition to “get over it and move on.”

 

People who have witnessed election fraud in other African countries have told me that it’s normally done by making small changes to large numbers of tallies and this appears to have happened in Kenya, where there were over 40,000 polling stations. After NASA submitted its petition, a team of American IT experts led by University of Michigan Professor of Statistics and Political Science Walter Mebane volunteered to conduct a forensic analysis of the results. Results that have been tampered with show patterns and Mebane’s computer program identified over half a million fraudulent votes in this manner—almost certainly an underestimate of the true number.

According to Mebane, the paper forms provide the true test of the integrity of the election. The Supreme Court’s registrar assembled a team of experts to physically examine the 34A and B forms that the electoral commission claimed to have used to arrive at the final results. According to their analysis, nearly a third of the forms have irregularities: some are blank, some are signed in the same handwriting, some come from polling stations that didn’t officially exist, some show results that differed from the totals on the copies of the form in NASA’s possession and from the totals announced by the electoral commission, and thousands lack official stamps, signatures, and watermarks. When the Supreme Court-appointed team examined the logs of the electoral commission’s server, it found that numerous unauthorized users had entered the system before and after the election, that the electoral commission chairman had uploaded and removed 34A forms, and that some polling center results had been added before the election had actually occurred.

Despite the growing evidence that the election was a fraud, Kenya’s notoriously corrupt judiciary may dismiss the case. When Odinga disputed Kenyatta’s victory after a similarly flawed election in 2013, the justices ruled that the election should stand, even though results from much of the country are not available even now, and probably never will be.

Another rigged election in Africa is not news. But that US election observers were so quick to endorse it is shocking. Perhaps they believed that wrapping the election up quickly would prevent violence. After Kenya’s 2007 election, which most observers have since concluded was rigged against Odinga, some of his supporters went on a looting and killing spree in ruling-party strongholds. Gangs backed by ruling-party officials fought back and the ensuing mayhem left more than a thousand people dead, caused hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, and nearly shut down the economy of much of eastern Africa, which relies on transport from the Kenyan coast. Odinga was not blameless: he was quoted making ethnically charged statements. But it was Kenyatta and his current deputy, William Ruto—who was then in a coalition with Odinga but has since switched sides—who were charged by the International Criminal Court with crimes against humanity for organizing and supporting the violent gangs. (The cases against them collapsed after witnesses were intimidated or died under mysterious circumstances.)

If the observers think urging Odinga to “move on” will avoid a rerun of 2007, they are likely mistaken. The Bush White House’s rush to congratulate Odinga’s rival, Mwai Kibaki, after the rigged 2007 election helped fuel the violence that followed.

A lady mourning as body of relative killed by police swoop in Mathare lays in the background.

A far more troubling possibility is that the US wants Kenyatta to remain in power, at the expense of democracy. Kenya lies in one of the most volatile regions of the world. Its neighbor Somalia has been a war zone for a decade; conflict in South Sudan has sent more than two million refugees scrambling to neighboring countries, including Kenya, since 2013. Two of Kenya’s other neighbors, Uganda and Ethiopia, are ruled by US-backed autocrats who have instigated or worsened these conflicts. Ethiopia’s US-assisted invasion of Somalia in 2006 set off the mayhem there, promoting the rise of the Islamist terrorist group Al-Shabaab. In 2014, Uganda entered the South Sudan civil war on the government’s side. Humanitarian organizations called for an arms embargo, which would have made Uganda’s involvement illegal. The UN Security Council, including Russia and China, seemed open to an embargo, but the Obama did not pursue it.

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Kenyatta, a drowsy-looking bon vivant, and the son of Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s first post-independence president, is supported by a powerful network of Kenyan politicians and businessmen, mostly of Kikuyu ethnicity, who have been looting the country for decades. He has aligned Kenya with US policy by, for example, deploying Kenyan forces in AMISOM, the US- and UK-supported African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

Odinga, a taciturn, ambitious seventy-two-year-old of Luo ethnicity, whose father was Jomo Kenyatta’s post-independence vice-president and later his rival, has long nursed a grudge against Kenyatta’s Kikuyu elite. He spent ten years in jail for participating in a failed coup against Jomo Kenyatta’s handpicked successor, Daniel Arap Moi, in 1982 and he fought vigorously for Kenya’s progressive 2010 Constitution which weakened Kenya’s formerly all- powerful presidency and made local officials more accountable to their people. Odinga has pledged to deliver a plan to withdraw Kenya’s troops from Somalia in the first ninety days of his presidency. NASA officials point out that the AMISOM deployment has provoked terrorist attacks on a Nairobi shopping mall and a university, killing hundreds and devastating Kenya’s tourist industry. Odinga is also close to South Sudan’s beleaguered opposition and might help force the US-backed government into negotiations. This is something the Obama administration seems not to have wanted, and the Trump administration seems not to either.

When I asked a member of the Carter Center delegation why his team was so confident about Kenyatta’s victory, he sent me a six-page report by a US-funded Kenyan NGO called the Election Observer Group. It describes a “verification” survey of the presidential results from 1,703 randomly selected polling stations around the country. According to the report, the survey predicted the electoral commission’s final results to within 0.3 percentage points for all eight candidates, including very minor ones who’d received only a few thousand votes.

It was obvious at once that something wasn’t right with this report. The NGO’s projected results were suspiciously accurate and the authors neglected to describe their sampling strategy. The sampling strategy is crucial—after all, voter preferences are not randomly spread around the country but clustered, with Kenyatta’s supporters in some regions and Odinga’s in others. A spokesman for the NGO told me that the survey was carefully stratified, but after carrying out a similar “verification” study during Kenya’s 2013 election, the same NGO declined requests to share its methodology until months after the contested vote, and when it did, several polling stations in the planned sample were reportedly missing.

A statistician friend who looked over the report for me put it this way: “Working backwards, from a known… or desired… election outcome, even I would know how to choose 1,700 polling stations to make results work. You would simply toss into the hopper Kikuyu area polling stations or remove Luo stations as needed.” Kikuyus tend to support Kenyatta; Luos, Odinga.

John Kerry and President Uhuru during his past visit in Statehouse

The Carter Center official was sanguine: “This [report] makes it highly unlikely that a large scale systematic manipulation—digital or manual—occurred during tabulation,” he wrote me. “Any significant discrepancies would have been discovered in the parallel count.”

But the study he was touting seemed to me like a piece of fake news—a flood of which had poured into Kenya around the election, virtually all pro-Kenyatta and/or anti-Odinga. Reports that Odinga had killed white farmers and that American think tanks believed Kenyatta would win appeared on newly created, convincing-looking blogs like “Foreign Policy Journal” and on mock-ups resembling Kenya’s largest daily, The Nation. While cooked-up stories about celebrities and UFOs are common in Africa, partisan fake news like this is not.

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Days before the election, an official-looking document—that may or may not be genuine—was leaked to an opposition member of parliament. It described plans to deploy “regime friendly” soldiers to two of Nairobi’s largest slums, both packed with Odinga supporters. In case the people rose up after the results were announced, these men were to cut off the water and electricity supplies and block access to the city center.

A few days after the election, an obviously fake “Embassy cable” began circulating on Whatsapp, complete with US government heading and transmission codes. The unsigned author, addressing his or herself to the “Secretary of State,” predicted that if Odinga won the election, his tribesmen would be so happy they’d go on a rampage for months, looting and pillaging and destabilizing eastern Africa. While the predictions in the document are absurd, they reflect what many Kenyans probably think Americans think of them, and seemed designed to demoralize those Kenyans who have long suspected a US hand in the rigging of their elections.

Last spring, Kenyatta’s party hired, for a reported $6 million, the data research firm Cambridge Analytica, which helped elect Donald Trump and sway Britain’s Brexit vote. Cambridge Analytica’s parent company is Strategic Communications Limited, which is now working for the State Department. Articles in Slate and Politico suggest that SCL has in the past engaged in disinformation campaigns to sway elections in developing countries. The company denies this.

The most disturbing article concerning the Kenyan election appeared on the New York Times editorial page two days after the results were announced. Entitled “The Real Suspense in Kenya,” the editorial claimed that election observers had “witnessed no foul play,” even though the Carter Center’s report, in contrast to the observer’s public statements, mentions Msando’s killing, the NASA office raid, and the problems with the transmission of results.

Achieng helplessly watching over her baby Pendo while in a comma at Aga Khan hospital, Kisumu

The editorial also accused Odinga of “fann[ing] the embers of ethnic strife,” when he’d actually urged his supporters to remain calm. NASA considered organizing a nonviolent protest—permitted under Kenyan law—but deemed it too dangerous. There was spontaneous protesting and some sporadic looting in Odinga strongholds after Kenyatta’s victory was announced, but according to human rights groups, there is no evidence that this was organized, or that Odinga or NASA had anything to do with it. As the Times editors should have known, there was election-related violence, but virtually all of it was carried out by government security forces. For days after the results were announced, special police units cracked down mercilessly, killing at least twenty-four people in Odinga strongholds. The police claimed the victims were criminals or inciting violence, but this is doubtful. In the lakeside city of Kisumu, police went house to house, hurling tear gas and beating and shooting people. Some victims were dragged out of bed and killed. At least ten deaths have been so far documented in this city alone, and more than a hundred others were beaten or suffered gunshot wounds. Among the dead are a nine-year-old girl shot by a stray bullet in Nairobi while playing on her balcony and a six-month-old beaten to death, in her own house, while in her mother’s arms. After Kisumu Governor Peter Anyang Nyong’o told reporters that fishermen had discovered five corpses in body bags floating in Lake Victoria, at least one of which had bullet wounds, the police claimed they were all drowning victims.

The Times editorial also failed to mention that reporters covering the police abuses have been beaten and arrested and that two highly respected Kenyan NGOs investigating them were closed down and raided by the police. A similarly misleading editorial appeared in The Washington Post on the day the election results appeared.

The US government has a disturbing history of meddling in the politics of developing countries; during the cold war, it also influenced some of our most prominent editors and journalists to downplay human rights abuses committed by its undemocratic allies. In countries like Kenya, where important US interests are at stake, the onslaught of mass-media distortions, and biased international election observers and Western-backed NGOs, suggest the possibility of a concerted strategy. As the Chinese general Sun Tzu put it in his famous book The Art of War, “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” But to do that, you need to make him feel he has already lost.

This article originally appeared on the New York Review Magazine 


Kenya Insights allows guest blogging, if you want to be published on Kenya’s most authoritative and accurate blog, have an expose, news, story angles, human interest stories, drop us an email on [email protected] or via Telegram

Kenya West is a trained investigative independent journalist and a socio-political commentator on matters Kenya and Africa. Send me tips to [[email protected]]

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Investigations

How Flying Squad Trailed And Arrested Police Officers Who Raided A Malian Citizen’s Home In Kilimani Stealing USD 8,000 In Cash

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Flying Squad officers have arrested one police officer & are in pursuit of others following a report made by one Bathily Abdoulaye, a Mali national, who had reported that on 15/09/2018 four police officers from Nrb Area command came to his Kilimani residence and arrested him.

In the process of the arrest the officers ransacked his house and took the following items: 8,000 US Dollars,Ksh.83,000, 3 Rolex watches each valued at 15,000 US Dollars, his passport and also transferred Ksh.30,000 from his Mobile phone number to another Mobile phone number.

The complainant was then escorted to Central Police Station where he was later released without being officially booked in the Occurrence Book. Thereafter, the same officers still continued demanding from him an additional 8,000 US Dollars which prompted him to report the DCI.

Flying Squad  officers laid an ambush at Yaya center where the money was supposed to be delivered & in the process managed to arrest one suspect namely Moses Njogu Njagi who led officers to Central Police Station where No.88724 PC Kelvin Ndosi of DCI Central was arrested.

The passport of the complainant was recovered from the arrested officer. The Flying Squad is still looking for the other rogue officers including one driver attached to the County Criminal Investigations Officer,Nairobi Area.

Cases Of Police Officers engaging in criminal acts are not new in the city and this just adding to the pile of many cases. With the purge on illegal immigrants, rogue officers have taken advantage and many foreigners are complaining about harassment.

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Investigations

Britania Foods Ltd CEO Robert Kagundah’s Days At Britania Numbered As Sales Director Shown The Door

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Britania Foods CEO sampling out some of the company’s products.

Mr Robert Kagundah, a former Coca Cola executive, was appointed to take charge of the business now renamed Britania Foods Ltd after acquisition from Manji foods by Catalyst Principal Partners and for Manji Foods, previously House of Manji, is Kenya’s market leader in the biscuits category with a market share of 27 per cent in 2016, according to data from research firm Euromonitor, it was a good gamble for the investors, however, that hasn’t been the case.

Britania has been making losses and notice to the CEO to restructure the company to profitable heights has hit a dead end with steady losses that now rolls.

Britania Foods Limited workers have accused the top management of irregularly running the company that was in 2017 acquired by Nairobi-based private equity firm Catalyst Principal Partners.

All is not well at Britannia Foods Limited following allegations that workers have been turned into slaves with sexual exploits being at the centre of management.

Currently in hands of private equity firm, Catalyst Principal Partners, all eyes are on chief executive, Robert Kagundah popularly known as RK on whom all eyes are focused. Not left out is Elijah Maina, the sales director of the firm. The duo is alleged that in order to satisfy their social urge, they award contracts and employment opportunities to females they befriend.

Kagundah out of the blue, awarded a catering and cake supply contract to Civa Cakes, associated to Cynthia Orenge. The said Orenge has introduced a lady by the name Charity Muema to Maina and her firm CM commodity suppliers is to land a major wheat supply deal running into millions of shillings.

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Kagundah met Ms Orenge at Karen Country Club. She was sacked at the club after she was found in a compromising position inside Kagundah’s car at the parking.

At Britannia, Kagundah manipulated a Somali tycoon, a one Mohammed and acquired a Mercedes Benz registration number KCD 227B. Mohammed had supplied the company with a number of Toyota Fielder cars for the sales department.

Britania is fully owned by Catalyst Principal Partners after being purchased in early 2017 from the Dawda family. Our sources indicate that cooked books may have been used to dupe Catalyst into buying the loss-making company.

By the time Catalyst found out, it was too late. CEO Robert Kagundah and his sales manager, happen to be best friends, forming an axis of acute corruption that no one at the company can stand up to.

The plan involves working in cahoots with distributors, to dupe the board and management that they are meeting sales targets.

A distributor would for example order biscuits worth Ksh 10 million, and Elijah and his team would report that figure has been met, regardless of whether the distributor sells or not. The distributor would then return back the stock after about three months, very close to the expiry date.

Britania hence ends up losing tens of millions every quarter, and rumors are that Kagundah is paid handsome amounts in kickbacks together with Sales Director Elijah Maina.

Catalyst has since sacked the sales director over non performance and the steady loss making. This can be seen as a blow to the CEO who has now lost s confidant. Britania would be keen to get its brand on straight line by doing away with scandalous characters in its management and more so have performers as opposed to mediocres.

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Thigh Pain That Killed A Three Year Old Girl In The Theatre At Kenyatta Hospital Parents Say It Was Doctors Negligence

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Peninah Kadogo, the deceased.

On a normal day on Monday, Penina Kadogo after a long day playing, complained to her father, Mathew Kitito about pain in his leg, “Baba naskia uchungu kwa mguu.” The father recalls. He had assumed this was probably a minor injury incurred during their plays with peers during the day. Unknown to him, this would be the start of a short, sad journey and the end of him seeing his daughter alive.

As a precaution, he opted to take her to the hospital for a quick bone check up. Talking to Kenya Insights, the father says a Dr. Tende at Kenyatta National Hospital checked and recommended for an X-ray, ultrasound checks. He was also referred to a bone diseases specialist a Mr. Ndeda.

After tests And deliberations, it was decided for the kid to be taken for operation to sort out the pain on her thighs on Tuesday. As required, she was put on medication and denied food as a patient preparation standard before surgery.

While she was booked for surgery on Tuesday, this never became the case and it was pushed till Thursday. According to the father, the three year old didn’t eat anything from Tuesday when the doctors had scheduled the operation till Thursday when she was taken to the theatre.

Mathew was hesitant about having the surgery done at Kenyatta but he was convinced that it was the best place to have it done given it being the biggest hospital. He had suggested taking her to a private hospital. In his own view, he wasn’t convinced the minor case warranted an operation.

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On Thursday at 11am, Peninah was finally taken to the theatre and once again, things would go down the drain from this point. Minutes turned to hours of waiting, uncertainty and anxiety was killing the parents on the other end. At 3pm that is five hours after she was checked in for the minor operation, the mother was called from the ward to take her daughter, by then, they had finished, so they thought.

When her mother, Joanne Atieno took her up, she felt something unusual, she was struggling to breath and at this point the doctors must have realized they made a mistake and then took her away from the mother who was then instructed to leave. This would be the last time she held her in her arms alive.

Peninah took her last breath minutes after, she was registered dead at 3.05pm. Mathew was then called to the hospital at 7pm where they broke to him the bad news.

Dissatisfied with everything, the father is convinced the death has been caused by doctors negligence and according to an uncle Chabuga Evans who’s taking the lead in seeking answers, Peninah was given anesthesia overload and that’s what resulted in the hard breathing. They claim she was taken out of the surgery before full recovery and the doctors didn’t factor in precautionary measures to keep the baby alive.

Narrating his story, the disturbed father is pointing all fingers at the hospital. “This was a minor case that shouldn’t have resulted in the death of my daughter, I’m mad, sad, friends and family are falling and I can’t explain to them what exactly happened.” Our interview pauses as he breaks into tears.

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The uncle Chabuga took over making their pointers clear that from Tuesday to Thursday the kid wasn’t given food and was taken to the theatre while too weak. They’re questioning why the doctors didn’t consider the physical stability before taking her for surgery.

Getting answers from the management has become a challenge, the family says. The body is at the hospital’s mortuary and they’re sourcing for independent pathologist to ascertain cause of death. They read dishonesty that the body has already been treated which the claim can possibly wash away crucial clues to find cause of death.

However, the resident pathologists are giving assurances that this wouldn’t be an issue as autopsy will show the exact cause. They’re determined to take the matter to all heights to get justice for the kid. They’ve raised an eyebrow as to why the final report was written by a different doctor from the ones who handled the patient. They’ve been advised to seek answers from the management.

Kenyatta Hospital continues to struggle with systematic failures which this site has been highlighting and are never addressed. General understaffing, underfunding and overcrowding remains the biggest challenges that are yet to be addressed making it prone to such errors which can be avoided.

As this family seeks justice for their daughter, another disaster is waiting to happen, the more things change, the more they remain the same. We’re yet to move on from the incident where a wrong patient had his skull opened and now this and so many unreported cases.

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Employ more doctors and staff, thevfew available are overworked, demoralized and proneness to mistakes increased, allocate more funds and ensure the projects are implemented to improve the facilities at KNH, we can’t have a national referral hospital running on colonial equipments. Decongest KNH by ensuring other public hospitals are working perfectly, this hospital should only be for complex issues as it should be not for treating minor cases like fever.

The hospital must give answers to the family of the deceased and ensure justice by taking actions against any deliberate negligence if any that might have resulted in the death of the three year old girl.


Kenya Insights allows guest blogging, if you want to be published on Kenya’s most authoritative and accurate blog, have an expose, news, story angles, human interest stories, drop us an email on [email protected] or via Telegram
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