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Understanding The Causes Of Heavy Floods In Kenya
“The Secretary-General is deeply distressed to hear of the hundreds of lives lost and many others affected by heavy flooding in Burundi, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania and other parts of East Africa,” the statement said.
The seasonal patterns are one of the factors. Africa is characterized by rainy seasons alternating with periods of no rain. In Kenya and several other eastern parts of the continent, the “long rains” season runs from March to May, while the “short rains” season runs from October to December.
Severe storms also marked the brief monsoon season of last year, particularly in November, in numerous regions of the country. The meteorological agency reported that several regions had over three times the long-term average rainfall.
These natural cycles are in turn influenced by other, larger patterns. In Kenya’s case, it’s the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a shifting of sea surface temperatures that causes the western Indian Ocean to be warmer than normal and then colder than average than the eastern Indian Ocean. There are also stages to it — positive, neutral, and negative.
She further explained that increased evaporation of warmer waters brought on by the hotter atmosphere can result in more intense rains.
“El Nino has been a source of extreme weather patterns globally. These have the effect of undoing decades of developmental progress […],” said UN General Assembly President Dennis Francis.
Add the phenomenon to rainy seasons, Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change, and you have a recipe for disaster.
“In parallel, human-induced climate change is intensifying impacts of El Nino/La Ninaepisodes and increasing climate risks,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted.
However, these phenomena can be predicted “well in advance”, which can help reduce their consequences, Saulo added.
In the meantime, the country has to cope with the current crisis, which Kenya Meteorological Department predicts will last until June.
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