Understanding The Causes Of Heavy Floods In Kenya

The seasonal patterns are one of the factors. Africa is characterized by rainy seasons alternating with periods of no rain. In Kenya and several other eastern parts of the continent, the “long rains” season runs from March to May, while the “short rains” season runs from October to December.

Severe storms also marked the brief monsoon season of last year, particularly in November, in numerous regions of the country. The meteorological agency reported that several regions had over three times the long-term average rainfall.

These natural cycles are in turn influenced by other, larger patterns. In Kenya’s case, it’s the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a shifting of sea surface temperatures that causes the western Indian Ocean to be warmer than normal and then colder than average than the eastern Indian Ocean. There are also stages to it — positive, neutral, and negative.

She further explained that increased evaporation of warmer waters brought on by the hotter atmosphere can result in more intense rains.

Add the phenomenon to rainy seasons, Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change, and you have a recipe for disaster.

However, these phenomena can be predicted “well in advance”, which can help reduce their consequences, Saulo added.

In the meantime, the country has to cope with the current crisis, which Kenya Meteorological Department predicts will last until June.