Is Raila Using Orengo’s Defiance to Send Ruto a Wake-Up Call?

Let’s talk about the drama unfolding in Kenya’s political scene. Siaya Governor James Orengo’s bold jabs at President William Ruto have tongues wagging, and I can’t help but wonder: is Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, pulling the strings behind this defiance?

The way Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna went after Ruto at a recent funeral, with Raila sitting right there, feels like more than just a coincidence.

It got me thinking that Raila’s sending a loud and clear message to Ruto: don’t take ODM’s alliance for granted.

Rewind to March 7, 2025, when Raila and Ruto signed a fancy agreement at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, promising to bury old rivalries and work together for Kenya’s good.

It was all smiles and handshakes, with talk of a “unifying vision” to tackle the country’s mess—think economic woes and the fallout from last year’s Gen Z protests. But fast forward months later, and the honeymoon’s already looking shaky.

The real fireworks happened on April 12 at the burial of George Oduor, Raila’s longtime bodyguard, in Siaya County.

Picture this: Ruto and Raila are both there, mourning a loyal aide. Then Orengo steps up and, instead of the usual pleasantries, lays into Ruto. “Mr President, praise and worship won’t cut it,” he said. “Tell your leader the truth, or this country’s headed for trouble”.

Not to be outdone, Sifuna piled on, slamming Ruto for not reining in his government—pointing to the tear-gassing of kids in Nakuru as a prime example of overreach.

Ruto, clearly not amused, shot back at Sifuna, warning him to “tread carefully or face discipline” sarcastically saying he’s one of the founding members of the ODM.

Now, here’s where it gets juicy. Raila didn’t say a word. Not during the funeral, not after.

In Kenyan politics, where every move is planned like a chess game, that silence is deafening.

Politicians don’t just wing it at big events like this—they huddle up beforehand, decide who says what.

So, when Orengo and Sifuna went off on Ruto with Raila right there, it’s hard to believe it wasn’t greenlit by the man himself.

And Raila’s never called them out for it, which feels like a nod of approval. Sifuna even said Raila told him to keep ODM’s identity strong. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

Here’s my take: Raila’s playing a clever game. He’s got his “experts” like John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi in Ruto’s Cabinet, helping run the show.

But he’s made it crystal clear—ODM’s not officially in this government. By letting Orengo and Sifuna throw punches, Raila’s telling Ruto, “We’re partners, not your cheerleaders.”

It’s a way to keep ODM’s base—especially in Nyanza, where folks aren’t thrilled about cozying up to Ruto—happy while still working with the president. Classic Raila: keeping one foot in, one foot out.

But it’s not all smooth sailing. Some in ODM aren’t buying this defiance act.

Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda called out Orengo and Sifuna, saying their funeral remarks were out of line.

Then there’s the Ramogi Professional Caucus, threatening to push for Orengo’s impeachment, claiming he’s sabotaging the Ruto-Raila deal.

It’s a reminder that Raila’s walking a tightrope, trying to keep his party together while playing this high-stakes game.

I’ve seen Raila pull this move before. Think back to his 2018 handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta.

He’d let allies like Junet Mohammed stir the pot while he played the diplomat.

Now, Orengo and Sifuna are the ones keeping Ruto on his toes, calling out police brutality and government missteps—issues that hit home with everyday Kenyans, especially the Gen Z crowd who shook things up last year.

So, what’s Raila really saying to Ruto? To me, it’s a warning: don’t get too comfortable.

This alliance is a two-way street, and ODM’s not here to just clap for you. Raila’s using his loyalists to hold Ruto accountable, making sure the promises of unity actually deliver for Kenyans.

It’s a gutsy move, and if history’s any guide, Raila’s got his eyes on the bigger prize—staying relevant, keeping his people united, and making sure Ruto knows who’s got the upper hand.

Ruto better listen up, because in Kenyan politics, silence can be louder than words. And right now, Raila’s quiet is speaking volumes.

Views expressed are those of the author.