How Ruto-Moi Deal Died After Temporary State House Ceasefire

Three months after President William Ruto and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi sealed what was billed as a historic political reconciliation at Kabarak, the deal appears to have quietly unravelled, leaving the once-dominant independence party stranded and its leader frustrated.

What began with grand promises of Cabinet positions, principal secretary appointments and lucrative pending bill settlements has descended into bitter recriminations, with senior Kanu officials now openly accusing the President of betrayal.

“Kasongo alitucheza,” a senior Kanu official told reporters on condition of anonymity, using street slang to suggest the President had duped them. “There was no written agreement, but the President made a commitment to bring us into government and give us positions. Our boss is not happy.”

The political pact, forged through the mediation of the late Raila Odinga and sealed after several meetings including one in Dubai, was meant to mark Kanu’s triumphant return to the corridors of power after years in the political wilderness.

The deal’s most dramatic manifestation came on September 9, 2025, when Gideon withdrew from the Baringo senatorial by-election just a day after meeting President Ruto at State House.

The seat, which the Kanu boss had held from 2013 to 2022, was subsequently won unopposed by UDA’s Kiprono Chemitei.

At the time, the withdrawal was widely interpreted as evidence of a substantial political bargain similar to the one that had brought ODM into the broad-based government.

Sources familiar with the negotiations said Gideon was eyeing the influential Roads and Transport docket currently held by Davis Chirchir, though some insiders claim he was primarily interested in business deals. The agreement reportedly included Cabinet slots for Kanu loyalists, principal secretary positions, ambassadorial appointments and the settlement of nearly Sh3 billion owed to companies linked to the Moi family for geothermal works under the Geothermal Development Company.

Former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi.

But three months later, not a single appointment has been made. State House has maintained what Kanu officials describe as a studied silence on the matter, fuelling suspicions that President Ruto never intended to honour the commitments that persuaded Gideon to sacrifice his political comeback.

According to insiders, Gideon deliberately chose to rely on a gentleman’s agreement rather than insisting on written terms, a decision that now appears to have backfired spectacularly.

“Chairman refused anything written. Gideon preferred to take Ruto at his word and even invited him to speak to his people,” the Kanu official said. “Now there is zero implementation. There is no indication anything will happen soon.”

The delay has sparked internal dissent within Kanu. Samburu East MP Naisula Lesuuda publicly criticised Gideon for withdrawing from the Baringo race without consulting party structures, deepening fissures within the already fragile outfit.

Kanu Secretary-General George Wainaina has attempted to calm speculation, insisting the party remains part of the broad-based government. However, when pressed on whether the agreement had collapsed, he declined to give a definitive answer, promising to address the matter “next week.”

UDA National Chairperson Cecily Mbarire has defended the delays, attributing them to procedure rather than political sabotage. She pointed to the party’s ongoing grassroots elections in Mt Kenya and Rift Valley as the reason for the hold-up, suggesting that implementation would follow once these exercises conclude.

“We only did the by-election at the end of November. December was short,” Mbarire said. “We are going to proceed after our grassroots elections this month.”

The apparent collapse of the deal comes at a delicate time for President Ruto, who is racing to consolidate his political machinery ahead of the 2027 elections. The death of Raila Odinga, who brokered the Ruto-Gideon rapprochement, has further complicated the President’s unity project, leaving a vacuum in the delicate balance of the broad-based government.

Political observers say Ruto’s immediate focus on strengthening UDA’s structures in his strongholds may explain why Kanu has been left in limbo, but they warn that prolonged delays risk turning the Moi camp from potential allies into disgruntled adversaries.

For Gideon, the stakes are existential. A successful deal would have restored the Moi family’s political relevance and given Kanu a much-needed lifeline. Failure, however, risks leaving the party more divided, weakened and exposed just as the 2027 campaign season begins.

The October 2025 Kabarak meeting, where President Ruto stood alongside Gideon and declared that Kenya needed “more hands” to move forward, now feels like a distant memory. The promised reorganisation of government to accommodate Kanu has not materialised, and the development projects pledged for Baringo remain on paper.

President William Ruto at Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi’s Kabarak home on October 10, 2025.

As whispers of betrayal grow louder within Kanu, the fate of the Ruto-Moi pact may ultimately serve as a cautionary tale about the perils of political deals built on trust alone, with no written guarantees to fall back on when goodwill evaporates.