Fears of Fallout As ODM Gives Ruto Fresh Demands For 2027 Support

President William Ruto faces mounting pressure to renegotiate power-sharing arrangements with the Orange Democratic Movement as the party threatens to withdraw support for his 2027 re-election bid unless key demands are met.

Senior ODM figures have drawn a hard line in ongoing political discussions, insisting that the party’s considerable vote bank cannot be taken for granted without clear, documented commitments from the Kenya Kwanza administration.

National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed delivered the blunt ultimatum during a gathering at the home of former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo on Sunday, warning that ODM would not support the President unconditionally despite their current working relationship.

The Suna East MP emphasized that while Kenya Kwanza appointed six ODM members to Cabinet positions after the 2022 election, this gesture falls short of what the party expects ahead of the next general election.

Those appointed include Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Hassan Joho at Blue Economy, Wycliffe Oparanya in Cooperatives and Opiyo Wandayi heading Energy docket.

However, ODM leadership argues these positions represent only an initial step in what should be a more comprehensive power-sharing arrangement.

“We cannot sit back without a plan simply because we are in a broad-based government,” Mohamed declared, adding that the party commands significant support across Coast, Western, Turkana, North Eastern and Nairobi regions.

He dismissed suggestions from some quarters that ODM has no choice but to back Ruto unconditionally, stating emphatically that anyone making such claims does not speak for the party.

“We did not vote for President Ruto, yet the Kenya Kwanza administration appointed six of our members to the Cabinet. If they want our votes in 2027, they must table their proposals. We must engage in talks before the election,” the legislator said.

ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga reinforced these sentiments, announcing that the party is preparing for fresh negotiations with the President.

The Homa Bay Governor stressed that any agreement must include detailed outlines of benefits earmarked for each region, particularly those previously marginalized from national development.

“We must know what is in store for us. We will present our proposals, and UDA must do the same. We will not go into an election without a clear plan,” Wanga stated, dismissing claims that ODM would collapse following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in October.

The Governor emphasized that ODM’s strength lies in its membership and called on supporters to maintain unity and strengthen the party rather than abandon it.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, the party’s deputy leader, echoed these concerns, insisting that ODM must be consulted on any coalition formation ahead of 2027.

He linked the broad-based government arrangement to the ten-point agenda agreed upon between ODM and Kenya Kwanza, arguing that both are inseparable as they directly affect ordinary Kenyans.

The renewed push for negotiations comes seven months after Kenya Kwanza and ODM signed a memorandum of understanding on March 7, 2025, aimed at fostering political cooperation.

That agreement saw Ruto and Raila pledge to work together on issues including youth unemployment, national unity, inclusivity in governance and ending government wastage.

ODM leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto. (Photo: Handout)

However, following Raila’s death in October, ODM leaders have made it clear that supporting the government does not mean they agreed with every aspect of the coalition arrangement.

Party leader Oburu Oginga, who assumed leadership after his brother’s passing, has previously stated that ODM will settle for nothing less than the Deputy President position in any 2027 political arrangement.

This demand has complicated matters for Ruto, who faces the delicate task of balancing ODM’s expectations against loyalty to current Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his Mt Kenya support base.

Political analysts suggest the President is caught between securing crucial votes from Nyanza and coastal regions through ODM, and maintaining the coalition that brought him to power in 2022.

Already, Members of Parliament from Meru and Tharaka Nithi have warned against any attempt to sideline Kindiki in favor of an ODM running mate, describing such a move as political self-destruction.

Ruto has attempted to navigate these treacherous waters by publicly encouraging ODM to strengthen its party structures while hinting at future coalition possibilities.

During the Piny Luo Festival in Migori last week, the President told ODM leaders he wants a strong opposition party so both sides can negotiate from positions of strength.

“I am calling on the ODM party to strategize itself and remain strong. We want a strong ODM so that we can plan Kenyan affairs together,” Ruto said, adding that he would similarly strengthen UDA for any future government formation through mutual agreement.

However, ODM’s latest demands suggest the party is not content with vague promises and wants concrete commitments documented before committing to any electoral alliance.

The party has made it clear that its substantial vote bank, which influences outcomes across multiple regions, gives it leverage that cannot be ignored.

Mohamed warned that withholding ODM support could significantly affect Ruto’s re-election prospects, describing the party as a national outfit with supporters who appreciate the current working relationship but expect more substantial gains.

The minority leader also indicated that ODM’s engagement would be limited to Kenya Kwanza, dismissing any involvement of impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in their 2027 political calculations.

As the 2027 election approaches, the political chess game between Ruto and ODM appears set to intensify, with both sides maneuvering for advantage while maintaining a facade of cooperation.

The outcome of these negotiations could prove decisive not only for Ruto’s re-election prospects but also for the future direction of Kenyan politics in a post-Raila era.

Whether the President can satisfy ODM’s appetite for power while keeping his current coalition intact remains the central question as the country heads toward what promises to be a fiercely contested election.