Insider Wars: How Choice For Flagbearer Now Threatens to Split Opposition Camp Ahead of 2027

What began as a promising show of unity among Kenya’s opposition forces is now unraveling into a complex web of competing interests and silent power struggles, threatening to derail plans for a unified challenge against President William Ruto in 2027.

Behind the carefully orchestrated public appearances and joint press conferences, a fierce battle for the opposition’s presidential flagbearer position is tearing at the fabric of the coalition that brings together at least six major political outfits.

At the center of this brewing storm are two key figures: former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

The choice between these two seasoned politicians has become the fault line threatening to split the opposition camp.

The coalition includes former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), Musyoka’s Wiper, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party, Eugene Wamalwa’s Democratic Action Party (DAP-K), Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee party.

Kenyatta factor

Sources within the opposition reveal that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is reportedly backing Matiang’i, while Gachagua appears to favor Musyoka.

This division at the top has cascaded down through the coalition, creating competing camps within what was supposed to be a united front.

Jubilee Party, through Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, has already made its position clear by endorsing Matiang’i, describing him as the “ideal reformist with the experience and personality to lead the nation.”

The party has announced plans to front Matiang’i as their presidential candidate, a move that has rattled other factions, particularly Gachagua’s DCP.

Gachagua’s strategic maneuvering

Despite being impeached as Deputy President last year and facing court challenges that may bar him from running for the presidency, Gachagua has emerged as a key power broker.

His recent controversial suggestion that Matiang’i should reject Jubilee as his election vehicle and form his own party has been interpreted by analysts as a strategic move to protect his influence in the Mt Kenya region.

“Mr Gachagua’s recent statement and public salutation in the company of Mr Musyoka – the famous ‘hi cousins’ – summed it all. He gave the clearest sign that Mt Kenya would be more comfortable supporting Mr Musyoka than any other candidate in the opposition,” an opposition insider revealed.

The former Deputy President has dismissed talk of cracks in the coalition, vowing to ensure President Ruto loses the 2027 vote, even if he has to play the kingmaker role.

However, his actions suggest a calculated effort to maintain his grip on Mt Kenya politics.

Mt Kenya dynamics

The Mt Kenya region has become a crucial battleground within the opposition.

Last year, in a symbolic gesture, Musyoka’s community was “integrated” into the Gema Cultural Association through elaborate rituals conducted by various councils of elders, positioning him as part of the larger Mt Kenya political framework ahead of 2027.

This integration ceremony, which took place at All Saints Cathedral in Nairobi, was seen as a strategic move to strengthen Musyoka’s appeal in the region.

However, if Matiang’i runs on the Jubilee ticket, it could rejuvenate the former ruling party in Mt Kenya and present serious competition for Gachagua’s DCP.

Western Kenya complications

The opposition’s challenges extend beyond Mt Kenya.

In Western Kenya, a parallel power struggle is playing out between Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. Despite being Wamalwa’s protégé and having been elected on a DAP-K ticket, Natembeya has emerged as a formidable force with his “Tawe Movement,” which has drawn massive grassroots support.

The governor’s growing popularity and criticism of both Kenya Kwanza and some opposition leaders have left Wamalwa politically eclipsed, complicating DAP-K’s position in the coalition talks.

Exclusion tactics

The infighting has become more pronounced with recent attempts to exclude certain leaders from coalition negotiations.

Musyoka’s allies have pushed for the exclusion of Jubilee’s Jeremiah Kioni from coalition talks, accusing him of bias.

This move has further strained relationships within the coalition.

President William Ruto.

President Ruto has not been oblivious to these opposition dynamics.

This week, he told his opponents to prepare for a tough contest in 2027, criticizing what he termed their attempt to “overthrow me through illegitimate means.”

“Table your agenda and let us meet in 2027. They say they will no longer wait for 2027.

That they plan violence and to overthrow the government. Let them dare,” the President declared in Nairobi, seemingly confident about the opposition’s internal divisions.

Despite the visible tensions, opposition leaders maintain they will remain united.

Gachagua has urged Kenyans to be patient until the person to face President Ruto and the power-sharing formula are unveiled in December next year.

“As patriots, we shall do the right thing. We shall put our interests aside for the sake of Kenya,” Gachagua said, though his actions suggest otherwise.

Political analyst Prof. Macharia Munene notes that there is a general feeling that key political players should have a support base before entering into coalitions.

He argues that the current dynamics reflect the natural tensions that arise when ambitious politicians attempt to unite for a common cause.

“If he is accepted by the people, irrespective of the party, he would still be voted. I don’t think Matiang’i could be a threat to Gachagua in Mt Kenya,” Prof. Munene observed, though recent developments suggest the competition may be fiercer than anticipated.

As the opposition coalition grapples with these internal divisions, the question remains whether they can overcome their differences to present a united front against President Ruto.

The stakes are high, and the window for resolving these disputes is narrowing as 2027 approaches.

The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the opposition can maintain its facade of unity or whether the silent wars will explode into open conflict, potentially handing President Ruto an easier path to re-election.

For now, the opposition leaders continue to present a united front in public while engaging in intense behind-the-scenes negotiations to determine who will carry their flag in what promises to be a defining election for Kenya’s political future.