Why a 2027 Election Re-run Now Lingers on the Horizon

Kenya is on the edge of another high-stakes presidential showdown, and political experts are already sounding the alarm. A 2027 election re-run now looks almost inevitable.

The looming contest is shaping up to be a fragmented, chaotic race with no clear frontrunner. President William Ruto and longtime opposition leader Raila Odinga appear destined to face off again.

Still, this time, they are both bleeding support and could be overtaken by emerging forces like Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Fred Matiang’i, and David Maraga. The math no longer adds up for a first-round win.

All scenarios point to a re-run. The fragmented field, lack of clear majority support, and growing voter frustration make a one-round win nearly impossible. [Photo: Courtesy]

Why a 2027 Election Re-run Is Likely

Poll analysts point to one critical constitutional requirement: to win in the first round, a candidate must secure 50 percent plus one of the votes and at least 25 percent in 24 of the 47 counties.

This was barely achieved in 2022 when Ruto narrowly beat Raila. But in 2027, the stakes have changed. Ruto has lost the Mt Kenya voting bloc, which gave him nearly half of his total vote count. Meanwhile, Raila’s traditional support bases in Eastern, Western, Coast, and Kisii have crumbled.

What’s left is a fractured race featuring several presidential hopefuls — Ruto, Raila, Gachagua, Kalonzo, Karua, Matiang’i, and others. With each commanding just a fraction of the national vote, no single candidate stands a realistic chance of clearing the 50pc-plus-one hurdle in the first round.

ODM’s rebranding and Raila’s expected candidacy announcement in October have heightened tensions. And Raila’s refusal to reprimand Sifuna after declaring the ODM-UDA union dead has sealed the divorce with Ruto. Experts say both men will likely go it alone in 2027, then try to negotiate a post-election coalition in a re-run.

Ruto’s Diminishing Support Base

President Ruto is in trouble. His former strongholds have turned hostile. The economic strain caused by new taxes, civil unrest, broken promises, and violent crackdowns on Gen Z protesters have eroded his support.

In 2022, Ruto won just over 7 million votes—scraping 50.49 percent—largely thanks to Mt. Kenya. Today, that region has shifted to Rigathi Gachagua’s corner.

The president is left relying on Kalenjin votes (about 1.7 million), coastal and pastoralist regions (about 1 million), and the incumbency advantage (perhaps 1 million more). That totals about 4 million—only 20 percent of the projected 20 million votes in 2027.

He might not even hit the 25 percent threshold in the required number of counties. The counties likely to support him are mostly Kalenjin and pastoralist regions—Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Bomet, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Samburu, Turkana, and maybe a few more.

His dismissive tone towards Gen Zs, branding them as “indisciplined children,” has also cost him millions of first-time voters. And his fallout with regional kingpins like Gachagua, Justin Muturi, and Cleopas Malala has left him politically isolated.

Worse, Ruto has waged war against the judiciary, ignored court orders, and appointed politically aligned IEBC commissioners—moves seen by many as rigging the ground for 2027. Should he be declared the winner, legal challenges are expected, potentially triggering a court-ordered re-run.

The Opposition Is Divided and Complicated

On the other side, Raila Odinga is no longer the powerhouse he once was. While he retains Luo Nyanza and parts of Nairobi and Busia, he has lost key support zones—Coast, Kisii, Eastern, and parts of Western Kenya.

He’s projected to bag just 4 million votes—roughly 20 percent—and will struggle to reach the 25 percent threshold in more than 10 counties. Even with ODM’s 20-year celebrations and a likely presidential bid, Raila is limping into 2027.

The “United Opposition” front—led by Kalonzo, Gachagua, Matiang’i, Wamalwa, and Karua — has promise but lacks cohesion. Though a single candidate would give them an edge, internal rivalries and ambition are tearing them apart. Talks are ongoing, and recent photos of Gachagua, Karua, and Matiang’i in the US together hint at efforts to revive a unified front.

Gachagua commands 6 million Mt. Kenya votes, but impeachment threats hang over his head. Kalonzo holds about 2 million Kamba votes, and Matiang’i has the Kisii region. Combined, the trio can net 12 million votes—enough to defeat a Ruto-Raila axis if they field one candidate.

But ethnic tensions and legal hurdles may hinder their ambitions. If Gachagua is barred from running, or if Kalonzo and Matiang’i don’t agree on who should lead, they risk splitting the opposition vote and forcing a re-run.

What a 2027 Re-run Will Look Like

All scenarios point to a re-run. The fragmented field, lack of clear majority support, and growing voter frustration make a one-round win nearly impossible.

In the re-run, only the top two candidates will face off. Ruto and Raila may go head-to-head again—but this time, it’s possible they’ll be outpaced by a surprise duo like Gachagua-Kalonzo or Matiang’i-Karua. Whoever makes it to the second round will need cross-regional support and the ability to strike coalitions quickly.

Kalonzo or Matiang’i against Ruto in a run-off could be dangerous for the incumbent. Both have national appeal, and the protest movement could easily tilt in their favor. Voter anger, particularly among the youth, is real. If harnessed, it could lead to an unexpected political revolution.

What remains clear is this—no one is cruising to victory in 2027. The numbers don’t lie. If the opposition gets its act together, avoids ego wars, and mobilizes disillusioned voters, it can unseat Ruto. But that depends on unity, smart strategy, and a powerful ground game.