Over 1 Million People Could Be Having Covid-19 In Kenya Now, A Doctor Says

By Dr.Samson Misango

For those people who love numbers about Coronaviruses, listen up.

In the last 24hrs, 15 samples in Kenya out of 545 that were tested turned positive. Bringing the total to 296 OF THE PEOPLE TESTED.

296 is not the number of cases in Kenya, but the number of positive samples out of the total tested. Anyone trying to use these figures to explain some Epidemiological trends is a liar..

There is no curve from those figures…

The testing is currently targeted at quarantined and suspected people, not the general population.

Quarantine was initially meant for suspected persons, but due to the clumsiness and dumb foolery of our security agencies enforcing stupid Curfew and lockdown measures, in cahoots with some misguided medics, quarantine is now a detention without trial site for any citizen who rubs the security agencies the wrong way.

That means, quarantine is now a reflection of the general population who are trying to have a normal life.

Back to the above figures…for those people who are looking at figures. Let me scare you, then I will unscare you.

15 out of 545 translates to 2.75%. Since Quarantine is now just a general place for any common petty offender, the 2.75% is the concentration of Covid 19 in Kenya.

By extrapolation, in Nairobi with a population of 4.4 million, 2.75% are Covid 19 positive ie 121,000.

Mombasa, with a population of 1.2 million, 2.75% are Covid 19 positive ie 33,000.

Kiambu with a population of 2.4 million, 66,000 are positive..

Nakuru with a population of 2.2 million, 60,500 are positive.

Kakamega with a population of 1.9 million, 52,250 are positive.

Kenya, with our 48 million population, 2.75% are Covid-19 positive, ie. 1,320,000.

Are the figures scary…?…yes..because you have been blinded by our reaction to the confirmed positive cases.

Where are all these people above?

Living with us. YES… WITH US! Mostly in very good health.

Someone wants you to believe that we will Quarantine all the cases as we diagnose them…it is a logistical impossibility…

It is a waste of our resources, just like huduma namba, BBI and many other nonsensical things we like engaging our energy on.

We will never test them all and they will keep increasing and spreading the virus as others recover, but the antibody test results will one day tell the whole story.

What’s my point?

By the above extrapolations, our current testing is not telling us anything because we will keep on detecting more and more people and it is not going to change anything. Apart from stigmatizing positive cases.

THERE IS NO CURVE WE ARE FLATTENING.

Coronavirus is with us….2.75% as of today and increasing, but WAIT….we are not dropping dead from it.

IT IS a highly Infectious BUT MILD DISEASE….and we will transmit it in perpetuity.

The press statements can go on for the rest of the year but we will never reach our real infection levels…we will always have new confirmed cases as long as we do more testing.

We can choose if we want to go on with this national circus of announcing the new confirmed cases for the rest of our lives or go back to our normal lives and accept that it is with us and we are living with it.

We have so many other more important matters to occupy our resources on. And those matters are being worsened by our bizzare fixation with this virus.

We do not need this merry go round with no end in site. If you doubt me, ask anyone in authority “what’s the end game?”

You will most likely be met by the answer “the next two weeks will be critical in our fight”.

DO NOT STIGMATIZE COVID-19 POSITIVE people. Most are not even having symptoms! You must have seen that viral video of the quarantined driver lamenting about being well.

Let no one scare you with new numbers,. Unless they tell you that they have confirmed 1,320,000 people tomorrow…we are chasing ghosts.

Lockdowns are at best a waste of time and at worst an economic, medical and social catastrophe….they will not change what is already here. The horses left the stable months ago and are happily grazing in the fields.

Leave the doors open.

Practice good basic hygiene to prevent the spread of infectious diseases.

CONTINUES…

The true extent of the prevalence of this mild but highly infectious disease will be exposed soon. It is just a matter of time.

Antibody testing shows over 4% of this US community has had the infection. About (get this) 55 times more positive cases than previously confirmed!!

Many without even knowing so….long before the press and politicians started getting hysterical about the infection and began spreading panic, fear and alarm for reasons best known to themselves.

Lazy intellectuals on my wall are bursting their piles when I suggest that we may have over 2% infection rates in our country…already spread out…based on the positive rates in our quarantines (which are not really quarantines but general detention camps without trial)

The lazy intellectuals have had over 6 weeks and nearly 300 patients at their disposal to describe to us about the Covid-19 in our population but they will instead wait to react to any write up that does not support their fear mongering…or to quote some mzungu who will.

Fact: Mandera now has Covid positive tests because Amref facilitated testing for them. They have positive numbers because they have had testing done, not because they are a hot spot….I challenge anyone with contrally information to declare so. And as a reward to Mandera county for their testing efforts, they are now on lockdown…?…

This is so surreal…you can’t make these stuff up.

I wonder how people in Amref now feel..?

Fact: The more testing we do, the more positives we will get, in whichever county…there is no curve to flatten.

Then someone will suggest that we close that county because of increased numbers …wah!

You really can’t make these stuff up…

Rushing to close stable doors after the horses already bolted…why?

Maybe to justify the Ksh40 billion that have been “spent” and keep the circus in town, or maybe just being plain incompetent, or maybe both.

Whatever the reason, let us not stigmatize Covid positive patients or punish counties with aggressive testing..

There is no curve to flatten…let us live with this mild virus.

Stop spreading fear, panic and alarm.

Practice good basic hygiene to stop the spread of infectious diseases.