EXPLAINER: How The AUC Vote Work

The African Union (AU) is preparing to elect a new chairperson for its commission to succeed the outgoing Moussa Mahamat Faki.

The election will take place during the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Vying for the top role are former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Madagascar’s ex-Finance Minister Richard Randriamandrato, and former Djiboutian Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. A deputy chair and six commissioners will also be elected.

Youssouf is a seasoned diplomat who is currently serving as Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, a position he has held for more than a decade while Odinga is a well-known Panafricanist who has served as Kenya’s Prime Minister as well as the African Union’s High Representative for Infrastructure.

Randriamandrato is Madagascar’s current Minister of Foreign Affairs. He previously served for one decade in Zambia at the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA).

The candidates are not only high-profile senior officials but also inspire lots of confidence regarding their capacity to steer Africa to realise its Vision 2063.

Vision 2063, also known as ‘Agenda 2063’, is a strategic framework for transforming Africa into a prosperous, integrated, and peaceful continent by the year 2063.

It focuses on the inclusive and sustainable socio-economic and political development of the African continent for the benefit of its people.

How will the vote work?

First, Africa has 55 countries. Seven of these countries will not be eligible to vote for the AUC Chairman because their leaders came to power through extra-constitutional means.

The fight for the coveted AUC Chairmanship will be concentrated on the 49 countries that are eligible to vote.

To be able to win, a candidate must garner two-thirds of the votes cast. In this case, the winning candidate must get at least 33 votes.

If none of the candidates manages to get the two-thirds in the first round, a second round of voting will be ordered. Voting is expected to go on until a winner emerges.

The countries are well distributed among regional, linguistic, economic, and religious groupings, which will be the key considerations during the election.

Odinga is being fronted as a candidate of the East African Community (EAC) bloc. The bloc comprises eight countries. If all these EAC countries agree in principle to vote together, then Raila starts with 8 votes.

But there is a twist. Both Tanzania and DR Congo are also members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) simultaneously, putting pressure on the two countries to vote for Richard Randriamandrato who hails from Madagascar, a SADC member state.

Analysts argue that Odinga will start with 6 votes owing to DRC’s involvement with SADC members as well as Tanzania.

Since the three candidates come from the Horn of Africa, eastern Africa, and southern Africa, the battlefields in the first round of the voting are expected to be central Africa, north Africa, and west Africa.

North African countries are Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia, making Islam the common denominator.

The contested votes in central Africa will comprise Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Sao Tome and Principe.